Mugabe to quit

President Robert Mugabe is reliably understood to be planning to retire after the next elections to pave way for his hand-picked successor, who will protect his interests and shield him from punishment for human rights violations.

Officials close to Mugabe said the veteran leader, in power for 32 years, was scheming to win the next elections by all means necessary and hand over power to a younger leader as part of a strategy to resolve the crisis around his succession and keep Zanu-PF in power. Mugabe wants elections this year.

Senior Zanu-PF officials told the Sunday Times that Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, 66, was earmarked to take over from Mugabe, 88, if he wins the next polls. Mnangagwa, despite his battered reputation due to his involvement in human rights abuses - mainly the Gukurahundi massacres - remains a powerful figure in the faction-ridden Zanu-PF.

He is currently battling to succeed Mugabe with State Security Minister Sydney Sekeramayi and Vice-President Joyce Mujuru, who is now weakened by the death of her husband General Solomon Mujuru.

Although Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander General Constantine Chiwenga is reportedly interested in the top job, he is a close Mnangagwa ally and could throw his weight behind him if he emerges as the front-runner in the succession race.

Mnangagwa and Chiwenga are key members of the Joint Operation Command (Joc), which brings together the army, police and intelligence chiefs. Joc is the power behind Mugabe's throne. Insiders say Mugabe's plan has been discussed with a few specially selected individuals who are expected to drive his election strategy.

He is said to have requested Zambian President Michael Sata to sell the proposal to other Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders who are increasingly becoming impatient with him.

Last month Mugabe met with Sata for private talks in Livingstone, Zambia. Insiders say they discussed the SADC political and security situation, focusing on Zimbabwe. While Mugabe wanted Sata's support, he also hinted his future plans to secure his backing.

On Wednesday, Mugabe met a few senior officials at the Zanu-PF headquarters and told them he wanted to quit after the polls. He is said to have hinted that he wanted to go because he had "had his time" and would like to "make way for a younger successor".

"The plan is that after the elections the president will retire and hand over power to a senior party official, who will complete his term while consolidating himself or herself," a senior official said. "Depending on what constitution would be in place, how the successor comes in would be determined by the constitutional and political circumstances, particularly the outcome of the elections insofar as it concerns the distribution of seats in parliament and the executive arrangement."

Another official said Mugabe was afraid of retiring without security guarantees, hence his current manoeuvres. "The president is now making plans to retire and resolve the succession issue, but only after he gets security guarantees."

Efforts to get comment from Zanu-PF spokesman Rugare Gumbo were unsuccessful. But Sata hinted at Mugabe's plans this week, saying: "There will be elections and Mugabe will go and someone else will take over, but not someone imposed by the Western countries."

Mnangagwa now seems well placed to take over from Mugabe. As ex-minister of state security from 1982 to 1988 and justice minister until 2000, it was on his watch that the Gukurahundi massacres took place .

He was defeated in the 2000 election by the MDC's Blessing Chebundo and lost his ministerial position. He then became speaker of parliament until 2005. Following general elections that year, he bounced back as minister of rural housing, a position he held until 2009 when he was appointed defence minister.

Despite his influence, Mnangagwa's main weaknesses are his bad reputation and lack of charisma, which have seen him lose several elections for top positions within Zanu-PF in the past.