Last month, China's Electricity Council declared a target of generating 30% of the country's energy from clean sources by 2015.

But if current economic and power demand trends persist, China's reliance on coal-fired thermal power stations can do nothing but increase for the next few decades. And that means significant export opportunities for South Africa's collieries provided they can rail rising tonnages of coal to the coast and onto bulk carriers.

According to banking group ABN Amro and minerals analyst Virtual Metals, China's achieving its stated target is far from certain. They point out that China's electricity demand is rising at an annual 15% clip while at present only 4% of the country's electricity comes from biomass, wind and solar generators.

China plans to increase its nuclear power component six-fold by 2020 and the country is now the world's largest producer of wind turbines. Even so, ABN and Virtual Metals question whether the clean target can be achieved - unless, that is, gas is counted as "clean". Beijing's aim is to double gas's share of the national energy mix from 4% to 8% by 2015. And that means growing imports from Russia and other countries. Still, coal will be increasingly dominant.

Coal currently provides 80% of China's electricity. Three years ago China became a net importer. This year, according to Virtual Metals, thermal coal imports could reach 114 million tons from 2009's 103-million, overtaking Japan in the process. Even then, if coking coal for China's steel mills is counted, this year's 170 million tons total imports will be small compared with annual domestic production of about 3.3 billion tons.

Beijing measures China's primary energy demand from all sources in terms of standard coal equivalent (SCE). That was officially reckoned at around 3 billion tons in 2009 with 69% coming from coal. Official projections are that energy demand is likely to increase by 40% to 4.2 billion tons SCE by 2015. And, so the reckoning goes according to Virtual Metals, of this 4.2 billion, 3.8 billion will have to be provided by coal. Which rather throws into question Beijing's plans for clean energy.

A recent report from the official Xinhua News Agency reckoned that China faced a domestic coal shortfall of 200 million tons by 2015, which will have to be met by imports.

While Chinese imports are set to soar, so too are those of other burgeoning Asian economies, predominantly India. Blow carbon dioxide emissions - according to semi-official estimates, by 2030 70% of India's electricity will come from coal-fired power stations against only 50% at present.

India is already initiating imports of coal from the US to supplement imports from elsewhere. But the sub-continent is facing a 26% increase in coal imports to 68 million tons this year, rising to 77 million tons in 2011 and doubling over the next five years.

Japan, Korea and Taiwan's imports are rising. And Vietnam, currently an exporter, is set to be importing as much as an annual 100 million tons by 2015.

Where all this import demand will be sourced is another matter. And the question is being asked: are we set for a coal super-cycle? If South Africa is to take full advantage of these years of booming Asian demand, the country's coal exporters and Transnet had better soon settle their squabbling over rail capacity.

There are also transport constraints in Australia that are leading to significant demurrage costs as ships wait to load.

Australia's miners are struggling to cope with demand, though their exports are expected to rise by 2.4% to 142 million tons this year. Indonesia, too, is struggling with its exports in sight of a 7% increase to 250 million tons this year.

Both countries' exports dwarf South Africa's stalled 61 million tons slated for 2010. And though some of the growing Asian demand might be met directly by Russia and the US, and by diverting Colombian sales away from Europe, strong price increases are being signalled.