China sees growth ebb

22 October 2010 - 00:16 By Reuters
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China's growth slowed in the third quarter and inflation edged a touch higher, showing that the economy was strong but far from overheating and suggesting that an interest-rate rise earlier this week might be enough for now.

The data published yesterday were broadly in line with forecasts, despite recent market chatter that growth and inflation had been much stronger than expected.

"Chinese officials are probably feeling quite pleased with the way the data are playing out," said Brian Jackson, an economist with Royal Bank of Canada, in Hong Kong.

"Policy measures put in place this year appear to have helped the Chinese economy through a middle course between overheating and a serious downturn."

Economic growth slowed to 9.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, down from 10.3% in the second quarter. Analysts had expected 9.5%.

Inflation rose in September to 3.6%, reaching a 23-month high and smack in line with forecasts.

But industrial output - a key indicator of growth momentum - increased 13.3% year on year, missing forecasts of a 13.6% rise.

"The fundamentals explain China's decision to hike the interest rate two days ago," said Dongming Xie, China economist at OCBC Bank, in Singapore.

"September might not be the peak for consumer inflation based on our projection."

The Shanghai Stock Market turned positive after the release of the data. The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to Chinese demand, ticked up slightly, supported by the view that the economy was performing as expected.

China's increase of interest rates on Tuesday was an attempt to anchor inflationary expectations and cool asset markets, but it also reflected the government's growing confidence in the solidity of the economic recovery.

Because the rate rise - the first in nearly three years - was so unexpected, many in the market assumed that the GDP and inflation figures would surprise on the upside.

It appears that the Chinese economy peaked in the first quarter, expanding 11.9% year on year.

Much of the slowdown can be explained by a higher base of comparison after last year's stunning rebound by China from the global financial crisis.

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