Manuel plays mum

National planning minister Trevor Manuel remained tight-lipped this week amid rumours that he could be a candidate to take over the reins of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Speculation about who should lead the IMF is gathering momentum following the arrest of managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn a week ago on sexual assault charges.

Strauss-Kahn resigned on Wednesday and paid $1-million cash and $5-million for an insurance bond on Friday after being granted bail by a New York judge.

John Lipsky, the IMF's first deputy managing director, is now the acting head, but even before events around Strauss-Kahn had unfurled he had said he would step down when his term expires at the end of August.

Manuel's name started featuring as a candidate to lead the IMF shortly after's Strauss-Kahn's arrest. This gained momentum after finance minister Pravin Gordhan said in an interview on Wednesday that Manuel's candidacy for the position was something SA should apply its mind to, and indicated that he would back his predecessor to head the body.

But Manuel's chief of staff, Dumisa Jele, said whereas the local and international media had been trying to get Manuel to "breathe a word" on the issue, the minister's view was that there was nothing to comment on.

"People's names have been mentioned as possible successors, but (Manuel) has not been one who wants to jump forward and speculate in terms of whether he would or would not like to be considered for the position," Jele said.

Manuel was also not prepared to comment on other possible candidates for the position, Jele said.

Although even the Financial Times named Manuel as a possible contender - above Agustin Carstens, the governor of the Bank of Mexico, and Stanley Fischer, the governor of the Bank of Israel - Manuel might face some obstacles should he position himself for the job.

The IMF has always had a European head; it has been playing a vital role in trying to save Europe from contagion by its debt-ridden peripheral member countries.

Razia Khan, an economist at Standard Chartered in London, said whereas Manuel was very well regarded inside and outside SA, the nature of the crisis in Europe meant there would be a very strong push from Europe for another European to head the organisation.

She said while Christine Lagarde, the French minister of finance, was the clear frontrunner as a consensus European candidate, there did not seem to be any clear consensus on a candidate among developing countries.

Khan said the top contender among developing countries seemed to be Kemal Dervis, but the former Turkish finance minister on Friday ruled himself out as a candidate.

"He is also considered to be a reformist like Manuel, but he has more global experience," she said.

Dervis was touted as a good compromise to avoid a clash between Europe and the developing world; this because of Turkey's status as a large emerging market that is partly situated within the European continent.

Piet Croucamp, a lecturer at the University of Johannesburg's department of politics, said the rumours about Manuel being a candidate for the job were still only rumours.

"The rumour has circulated before," Croucamp said.

"There is no indication that Manuel is necessarily a candidate for the job. The appointment of the head of the IMF is a long and complex process and the US has a big influence," he said.

If a short list of candidates were drawn up and it was decided that the IMF boss must come from Africa, Manuel would definitely be the strongest candidate, Croucamp said.

But the head of the IMF was not determined according to continental representation, he said.

Any exit by Manuel from the South African political arena might damage business confidence somewhat, but not as much as it would have had such a move come when he was still the finance minister.

Croucamp said Manuel seemed to have been weaning himself off party politics lately, preparing for a life after ANC politics.

"He started to take on some big voices within the ANC. The altercation with Jimmy Manyi (the government spokesman whom Manuel called a "worst-order racist") was almost brutal for his own political career," Croucamp said.

Manuel was moved from the treasury to the presidency to head the national planning commission when Jacob Zuma became president two years ago.

Croucamp said Manuel had been struggling ever since to determine his own position within the ANC.

How does the IMF work?

The IMF, set up after World War 2, is an intergovernmental organisation with 187 members that oversees the global financial system.

On joining the IMF, a country is allocated a quota based on the size of its economy, determining its financial contribution to the IMF, its voting power and ability to access IMF funding. SA holds 0.77% of the total vote versus 16.8% for the US and 14.43% for Germany, France and the UK combined.

The board of governors is the IMF's top decision-making body. It consists of a governor and an alternate governor for each member country. The governor is appointed by the member country and is usually the finance minister or central bank head. SA is represented by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Reserve Bank governor Gill Marcus is his alternate.

The IMF's executive board, which runs daily business, has 24 members, representing all 187 members. Big economies have their own seats. Most countries form constituencies of four or more countries.

The executive committee considers nominations for the post of MD, usually by consensus instead of voting. Traditionally the MD is a European and the first deputy MD, who is second in charge, American.

The possible candidates: The frontrunners:

• Christine Lagarde, the finance minister of France.

She seems to be the consensus candidate among European countries and would be the fifth French person to head the IMF.

• Stanley Fischer, governor of the Bank of Israel.

He has been the chief economist at the World Bank and first deputy MD of the IMF. At 67 he might be too old as the IMF rules state persons 65 or over should not be made MD.

• Axel Weber, former president of Germany's Bundesbank.

He withdrew from the race for president of the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier this year and openly opposed the ECB's decision to buy bonds of weak eurozone countries at the height of the debt crisis.

• Kemal Dervis, vice-president of the Brookings Institution and former Turkish finance minister.

He worked at the World Bank and is said to have saved Turkey from sovereign bankruptcy in 2001 when he was finance minister. But he has said he will not be a candidate.

• Tharman Shanmugarathan, finance minister and newly appointed deputy prime minister of Singapore.

He chairs the IMF's policy advisory panel. But his appointment as deputy prime minister might put paid to his chances.

In the pack:

• Trevor Manuel, head of SA's national planning commission and former finance minister.

He has chaired the World Bank's development committee and earned international recognition during his tenure as finance minister. SA's finance minister Pravin Gordhan said he will back Manuel for the job.

• Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chair of the Indian planning commission.

He has worked at the World Bank and the IMF. He has said he is not eyeing the position, but India's chief economic adviser, Kaushik Basu, says he is the best man for the job.

• Agustin Carstens, governor of the Bank of Mexico.

He was deputy MD of the IMF from 2003 to 2006 and has been labelled "best candidate" by Mexico's finance minister Ernesto Cordero.

• Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of Canada.

He is on the Economist's list of top 10 candidates and Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper said he would do a "wonderful job".

• Mohamed El-Erian, Egyptian co-CEO of bond fund Pimco.

Egypt has nominated him before, but he said this week he does not want the job. He also criticised the IMF's "feudal selection approach" this week.

• Arminio Fraga, former MD of Soros Fund Management and former president of Brazil's central bank.

Although he is said to be running for the job, some say European leaders' prejudice against hedge funds could count against him.

• Zhu Min, special adviser to Strauss-Kahn and China's top official at the IMF.

With China being the IMF's third-largest member, Chinese analysts and media commentators have suggested Zhu could take the helm. Zhou Xiaochuan, currently a governor of the Bank of China, has also been mentioned.

Bringing up the rear:

• Gordon Brown, former UK finance minister and prime minister.

His desire for the job is no secret, but even current UK prime minister David Cameron will not back him with so many people blaming him for his role in the UK's debt problems and the global financial meltdown.