Stats SA will release third-quarter gross domestic product data tomorrow and the economy is thought to have registered slight positive growth in the third quarter of this year, coming out of recession after three consecutive quarters of contraction.

But economists are warning that even if the country has pulled out of a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of negative growth - it will still be a bleak Christmas for consumers.

The economy lurched into recession for the first time in 17 years in the first quarter, when GDP shrunk by 6.4% after a previous 1.8% decline as a global downturn hit the key manufacturing and mining sectors. It dipped by 3% in the second quarter.

Stanlib economist Kevin Lings forecasts a positive number in the third quarter "in and around 1%".

Lings said what was fairly encouraging was that some sectors which had led the recession, like the manufacturing sector, have fared better in the third quarter.

"We are moving in the right direction but we are still fragile. The employment situation has to move to a point where we are not cutting jobs, which will help with stability in income," he said.

Lings said even if the economy was out of a technical recession, consumers would not feel as if the recession has ended.

Standard Bank economists Danelee van Dyk and Shireen Darmalingam said: "A strong turnaround in manufacturing production, 2.6% quarter on quarter (q/q) from -3% q/q in the second quarter; and electricity consumption, 2.6% q/q in the third quarter from 2.9% in the previous quarter, could give GDP growth a combined head start of around 1.4 percentage points." They expect real GDP to expand by 1.9% in the third quarter.

Sizwe Nxedlana, an economist at FNB, said the bank expects -0.5% GDP growth in the third quarter. "It's going to be touch and go whether we get positive or negative figures," he said.

He said even though industrial sectors such as manufacturing production, electricity consumption and non-gold mining were on an upward trend, sectors driven by consumer spending were still weak.

"Retail and wholesale sales are really battling, and there is no sign of a turnaround just yet. This is what is causing us to be a little cautious," said Nxedlana.

Nxedlana said the bank was looking at the fourth quarter for a positive GDP figure. - Additional reporting by Reuters