Politics worrying bankers
Political risk is the greatest risk facing the global banking industry, according to the annual global Banking Banana Skins survey.
The survey is based on the responses of 443 bankers, regulators and observers across 49 countries around the world, six of which are from South Africa.
It is compiled by the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI) in London and sponsored by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
Previously, financial risk was regarded as the greatest risk, the survey found.
Respondents agreed that governments' dash to rescue banks from near collapse during the financial crisis led to political interference taking the top spot on a list of 30 serious risks facing banks.
"This is the first time in 15 years that political interference has appeared as a risk in the Banana Skins surveys," researchers said.
The survey found that bankers saw politics influencing their lending decisions, while non-bankers believed that political rescues had damaged banks by encouraging reckless attitudes.
Regulators expressed their concern that governments would withdraw their support from banks before they had time to rebuild their financial strength, precipitating another collapse.
"It is ironic that politics should emerge as a risk when the banks had to be rescued in the first place," said survey editor David Lascelles.
"But there is clearly a crisis in the relationship between banks and society, and it will take years to rebuild trust," he said.
"Until it is, banks will operate under a financial handicap."
The survey reflected "the concern is that the global financial crisis has taken the banking industry's future out of its own hands", said Tom Winterboer, PricewaterhouseCoopers' South African financial services and banking leader.
"Governments' efforts to rescue banks from disaster may have staved off a collapse of the system, but it has left attitudes towards the banking industry deeply politicised," he said.
A measured response was now required to avoid damaging the banks' long-term capacity to return public funds and enable them to play their essential role in the wider economy effectively.
"This year's survey is a well-timed warning that the cumulative effect of current regulatory initiatives may have unintended consequences," Winterboer said.
The need to rebuild trust between banks and regulators was therefore more important than ever.
"Many of the risks identified by the survey - notably credit risk at number two - stem from concern about the effects of the global recession on the banking industry," he said.
The bulk of respondents were pessimistic about the outlook, fearing a double dip recession with a further wave of bad debts hitting the banks, the survey found.
The poll also reflected concern about the banks' ability to manage themselves safely.
"Banana Skins, such as the quality of risk management, corporate governance and management incentives, all feature prominently as potential sources of risk," the survey found.
Globally only nine percent of respondents believed that banks were well prepared to handle the risks they identified, compared to 24 percent who thought so in the 2008 survey.

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