World Cup's R38bn boost
The World Cup will add R38-billion to the South African economy this year - more or less the amount spent by the country in hosting the tournament, minister of finance Pravin Gordhan said on Friday.
The minister estimated that the World Cup had created 130000 jobs - in the construction of stadiums and other facilities, and the tourism and feeder industries. The new infrastructure would act as a magnet for investment as well as improve the lives of citizens, Gordhan said.
"Once you build a road, it doesn't disappear the day after the World Cup ends," he said. The "soft" benefits were equally important, he added.
South Africa has attracted far more foreign fans than expected to the tournament, particularly from South America.
"At one stage we were talking about 300-and-something thousand and then down to 250000, and probably we're closer to the 500000 figure now. In June alone, there were about 200000 people that came in," Gordhan said.
The extra fans could give the economy a bigger boost than the government's estimate of an added 0.4 percentage points on GDP growth this year.
Gordhan's comments came after the release of promising statistics on new vehicle sales by the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA (Naamsa). The sector was one of the worst hit during the recession, and the association reported that 39931 new vehicles, led by Toyota, were sold during June - a 20.7% jump compared to the same month last year.
In June, 21761 new passenger vehicles were sold compared to 20786 in May, an increase of 4.7%. Volkswagen was the leader in this segment with 22% of the market.
"For once, entry-level cars were pretty strong, which hasn't been a pattern for the first few months of 2010," said Econometrix motor industry economist Tony Twine .
"Most of the economic recovery experienced during the year has been driven by corporate spending. It's a sign that demand patterns are swinging in favour of household consumers who are becoming more adventurous."
McCarthy Holdings chief executive Brand Pretorius said the 2% rise in overall new vehicle sales (passenger and other vehicles) in June over the May figure was expected.
"There is no doubt that World Cup fever, which led to some disruption in normal business activities, is having an effect on new vehicle sales."
Nedbank economist Dennis Dykes said consumer confidence, spurred by lower interest rates and income growth, would continue to improve during the year.
"This, together with easier credit criteria, should support car sales during the remainder of the year. However, high existing household debt levels and slow employment growth will contain the growth rates.
"Commercial vehicle sales should also increase off the very low base established in 2009, but the recovery will be subdued as the private sector remains reluctant to expand capital expenditure, while ample spare capacity and budget constraints will probably result in slower growth in infrastructure spending by the public sector now that the World Cup rush is over," he said.
The good news on the vehicle sales front wasn't quite matched by other key economic indicators released this week. Statistics SA said the total turnover of all industries for the first quarter of 2010 was an estimated R1.2-trillion, a decrease of 5.4% from the fourth quarter of 2009.
Manufacturing production and sales showed a decline of 2.9% to R101.9-billion from March to April this year.
And Kagiso Securities' Purchasing Managers Index - an important measure of manufacturing activity - showed a decline below the critical 50 mark to 48.4 for June. It was the first decline below 50 since November 2009.
Gordhan said the decline showed SA's recovery from recession was "tenuous".
"These numbers merely indicate that whilst there is a net upward trend, there are issues of concern. I think we have always said we have a recovery but we have a tenuous recovery and that employment, for example, will be slow to recover.
"The main thing for South Africa that comes through from the current global context is that we can't rely on traditional markets - that unless we begin to diversify as a country, both what we produce and where we export to, and what we consume in South Africa itself, then we have challenges ahead of us," he said. - (Additional reporting by Sapa and Reuters)

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