Jeremy Thomas Christmas has come early for the JSE, it seems. The breakneck demand for South African shares and bonds this year, primarily from foreigners, spurred the securities exchange operator to throw a nice boozy bowling-alley party at lunchtime on Friday in Johannesburg. Free tequila sunrises and T-shirts for all involved, thank you very much.

Many people will hope the festivities continue. After all, rapidly-churning volumes not only mean we're on the world's radar as an investment opportunity, they translate into fat pay days for bourses and fee-earning brokers.

But when fund managers continue to make bullish noises about the local market, in the face of grim evidence to the contrary, seasoned cynics say it's time to run for the hills.

The guys in suits may not even believe their own claims that prices are going to rise - they may just want the commissions that come with lots of new buyers. After all, they earn very little if you've parked your cash in the money market.

More jaded observers reckon the banksters themselves will be more than willing sellers of stocks they know, deep down, are overvalued.

Will the bulls hit the mark this year? According to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, most SA fund managers see the JSE rising in the next six months, and 40% of them say it'll be 10% higher. No better time to buy, they say.

Hoo, boy. I'd hate to be hard-pressed to make such a prediction, but small investors have absolutely no recourse should the extravagant claims of the carnival barkers not come true. Sure, you'll be able to liquidate your (likely shrunken) investment come December, but the damage will have been done - and the piper paid.

Quarter after quarter, we hear the same grouse from the Association of Savings & Investment: private investors are spurning stocks, and potentially missing out on astronomical profits. Well, excuse us, chaps. Some of us might have looked out of the window or taken a drive lately, or read a newspaper report or two. So forgive us for not paying our dues to the unit trust industry.

Nobody, least of all bank analysts, will tell you it's time to sell and take your profits (if you have any left). Most will say, with some degree of intelligence, that if you have any faith at all you must stick it out for at least another five years. You only have to look at Allan Gray's performance to realise it's stupid to take fright at short-term dips and market "noise".

At present we sit in a maelstrom of ugly events, and there's no easy end in sight. Contrarian investors will say it's the best time to commit new money to the market. With the global bellwether, the Dow Jones, dipping this week below the phantasmagorical 10000 mark, and investment sentiment ugly indeed, perhaps they have a point. A very arguable point, but a point.

Predicting the market is a mug's game at the best of times, but given the extraordinarily rocky global (and domestic) political and economic environment, it would take more than bafflingly obscure and expensive advertising campaigns to lure most punters out of the cash closet right now.

I'd be delighted to be proved wrong, of course, since, like most salary slaves, my pension lies in the sweaty hands of the very people we so enjoy vilifying. If they can stir up a frothing tsunami of new money to buoy the moribund markets, more strength to their arms. But, as movie mogul Sam Goldwyn once said: "Include me out."