Smoke, and don't mirror my picks
To the many analysts punting British American Tobacco (BAT), my derisory response has been, "Do you really think a company that kills its customers has a great future?"
And to contestants in our mini-portfolio contest who insist on picking the same share five times, I've repeatedly warned that although the rules allow this, diversification is a far wiser strategy. Furthermore, since this is only a game, rather pick small caps, since they are likely to grow faster than blue chips.
By ignoring all of my advice and picking BAT five times, reader Colin Dutkiewicz placed second in the December-to-February round of Money's five-share mini-portfolio contest. He wins six months' subscription to PowerStocks Research.
BAT was only the 64th best-performing JSE share over the three months, so the all-BAT entry's coming second is probably due to the 47 entries received in this round posing too small a sample to scientifically prove anything.
I maintain that picking only one share, especially a big cap, is a poor strategy. Then again, maybe I should buy some BAT shares. It might make me more tolerant of smokers. At least then I'd get some benefit from all the second-hand carcinogens we nonsmokers get exposed to.
BAT's 17% total return over the three months saw it retake its title as the JSE's biggest company by market capitalisation from BHP Billiton, whose share price flat-lined. Third-placed Anglo American fell further behind with a nearly 15% drop in market cap.
The past three months have been the JSE's most dire since the three-monthly competition was launched a year ago. On average, as measured by the JSE's all share index, the stock market's total return fell 1.7% from the start of December to the end of February.
Of the JSE's sub-indexes, the best performer was venture capital, with a total return of 26.5%, followed by development capital, with 24.7%. Technology and software tied in third place, with a total return of 14.8%. A selection of small cap IT stocks put reader Derek Gabriels' five-share pick in first place, winning him ProfileData's Share-MagicLITE technical analysis software with a 12-month JSE data subscription.
Now that the contest has reached its first anniversary, prizes will be awarded next week to the first-round entrants whose five share picks have done best over 12 months. There are also prizes for the second round entrants whose portfolios did best over six months. The rules again: You are welcome to enter anything that has a JSE ticker, and it's best to include the share codes in your entry, particularly where there are ambiguities like Investec and Mondi plc or Ltd.
How well shares do over the period is calculated by their volume weighted average price (VWAP) on the start and end dates plus dividends paid during the period. I prefer VWAP to closing prices since these are less open to manipulation on thinly traded penny stocks. VWAP also gives a more realistic price - the price that someone buying the shares would pay.
Dividends are added to give the total return over the period.
Readers who would like to enter the next round should e-mail their five share picks to laingr@sundaytimes.co.za. Please include your address in the entry.

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