Three months is a long time on the stock market

State monopoly Eskom's successful sabotaging of the effort of private sector entrant Independent Power SA (Ipsa) to build a power station at Coega sent the winner of the September to November round tumbling to 39th place in the six-months' leg of our five-share mini-portfolio competition.

Ipsa's forced sale of the turbine it was hoping to use to alleviate South Africa's power crisis proved a double whammy for Geoff Thompson's five picks.

JSE investors underestimated the Soviet-style imbecility the government would show in the electricity sector - creating rules to the effect that private sector players were allowed provided they sold to Eskom, which in turn refused to buy Ipsa's power even during the height of the blackout crisis two years ago.

It is to be hoped that the parastatal won't be able to borrow money from the World Bank, opening the way for power stations to go where they belong - to the JSE.

Meanwhile, mining shares are getting pummelled by the gloomy prospect of increasingly expensive and unreliable electricity - and few as badly as exploration company Witsgold.

Crashes in the share prices of Ipsa, Witsgold and property developer Pinnacle Point swung Thompson's mini-portfolio from a winning 19% rise over three months to a 16% loss over six months.

The sharp change in fortune for this and other entries brings into question the wisdom of patiently buying and holding shares. Then again, this contest ignores real-life costs like trading fees and capital gains tax.

The steady growth of EOH, Universal and Aquarius offset a crash by Protech to bring Doug Hare's five share picks from third place in November to first place in February.

He wins ShareMagic PRO software with a 12-month JSE data subscription, worth R8200.

Reaz Ballim's selection held steady in second place, rising modestly from 15.3% to 17.3%. This extends her previous prize of a subscription to PowerStocks Research, worth R1199, for another year.

Next week, we'll see how the first round's entries have done over a full year.

The prizes are:

• First prize - a copy of ShareMagic PRO software with 12-month JSE data subscription.

• Second prize - a 12-month subscription to PowerStocks .

ý Third prize - a copy of ShareMagic LITE JSE technical analysis software with a 12-month JSE data subscription.

A few readers have asked what the closing date for the May to March round is.

Given the volatility of the stock market shown in these results, I don't think readers who hold back to the last moment get much advantage.

But since there are now prizes at stake, let's make the closing date the end of this month.

You are welcome to enter anything that has a JSE ticker, and it's best to include the share codes in your entry, especially where there are ambiguities like Investec and Mondi plc or Ltd.

How well shares do over the period is calculated by their volume weighted average price (VWAP) on the start and end dates, plus dividends paid during the period.

Readers who feel five shares offer too much diversification are welcome to pick the same share more than once.

• Readers who would like to enter the next round should e-mail their five share picks to laingr@sundaytimes.co.za