By the end of this year, President Jacob Zuma's chances of finishing his term in office could be seriously in doubt - or he may be well on his way to serving a second term.

It all depends on the outcome of the ANC national conference scheduled to take place in Mangaung, Free State, at the end of the year.

The conference will be preceded by a series of events that could reshape South African politics.

S'THEMBISO MSOMI takes a look at these events, as well as the personalities who are likely to feature prominently this year.

ANC CENTENARY CELEBRATION

The political calender of the new year kicks off with a bang as early as next Sunday, when the ANC will be celebrating 100 years ofexistence.

Africa's oldest national liberation movement is going all out to make the bash a memorable one.

Heads of state from at least 12 countries are expected to join the thousands of ANC supporters who will gather in Bloemfontein in Free State for the festivities.

The celebrations will be the first official ANC gathering attended by former president Thabo Mbeki since his axing from office in September 2008.

Although the event is billed as a fun-filled bash, it could also set the tone for the expected ANC leadership succession battle ahead of the December conference.

If Zuma is booed off the stage by supporters of embattled ANC Youth League president Julius Malema it would indicate that those who want Zuma ousted as party leader in December have a strong following within the ANC.

Malema is currently appealing against a suspension handed down to him by the ANC national disciplinary committee late last year and his supporters are said to want to use the January 8 rally to register their unhappiness with Zuma.

PRESIDENT JACOB ZUMA

He has yet to state publicly whether he wants a second term as ANC president or not, but all indications are that he is determined to continue leading the party beyond 2012.

Despite the loud anti-Zuma statements coming from the youth league and ANC structures in provinces such as Limpopo, the president's chances for re-election so far look promising.

He continues to command massive support in major ANC provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape.

The two provinces alone account for more than 40% of ANC members.

Depending on whether his allies in Mpumalanga, Free State and North West retain control of their provincial structures, Zuma seems set to get the nod from most provinces.

This is all dependent, however, on the controversy-prone president avoiding any major scandal in the coming months.

DEPUTY PRESIDENT KGALEMA MOTLANTHE

Motlanthe is being touted by the youth league and, informally, by ANC leaders in Gauteng and other provinces as their preferred candidate for the ANC presidency in December.

But we may have to wait many months before we actually know if the former unionist, who served as the country's president for a short spell after Mbeki's 2008 sacking, has the appetite to take on a sitting head of state.Even Zuma's supporters seem to agree that Motlanthe should succeed him as the leader of both the party and state. The dispute is over whether it should happen this year or in 2017.

If he is to emerge as a candidate at the end of the year, Motlanthe - who is known for playing his cards very close to his chest - will do so only once convinced that he enjoys the support of the majority of ANC branches.

But if his campaign is to succeed, Motlanthe's supporters may have to convince Malema and the youth league to play a less prominent role, as their involvement seems to be alienating ANC structures that back Motlanthe, but are suspicious of Malema's political intentions.

JULIUS MALEMA

His main focus as the new year begins will be on getting his five-year suspension from the ruling party lifted by the ANC's disciplinary appeals committee, headed by businessman Cyril Ramaphosa.

If the suspension is upheld, and Malema's subsequent appeal to the ANC national executive committee for a review is rejected, it would spell the end of his short, yet dramatic, career in the upper echelons of the ruling party.

Not only will he have to step down as ANC Youth League president, but Malema will also have to be removed from the ANC Limpopo executive committee to which he was elected at the beginning of December.

All of this will mean he cannot play any direct role in the succession battle that will unfold ahead of the Mangaung conference.

But if the suspension is lifted, it spells trouble for Zuma's re-election campaign, as Malema has made it his mission to oust the president.

ANC SECRETARY-GENERAL GWEDE MANTASHE

The main target of the youth league's "generational mix" campaign, Mantashe faces a crucial few months to see if he will serve a second term as the ruling party's third-in-command.

The youth league wants him replaced with former league president and Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula.

What could harm Mantashe's bid to stay on is that he is still seen as something of an outsider by some structures and personalities in the ruling party. The former trade unionist, who also serves as national chairman of the SA Communist Party, is often accused by "nationalists" in the ANC of being too close to Cosatu House.

JUSTICE MINISTER JEFF RADEBE

Although the ANC leadership succession battle will dominate the headlines, it is certainly not the only political story to watch in the new year.

Radebe ended 2011 at a low point, being blamed for the "bad legal advice" given to Zuma on a number of important justice department and judiciary appointments. Will Radebe finish 2012 as justice minister?

PUBLIC PROTECTOR THULI MADONSELA

Certainly one of the stars of 2011, Madonsela has won herself many hearts by taking on corruption and abuse of office by senior government officials and politicians.

Her findings on two separate cases involving public works and the police department, as well as one relating to cooperative governance, cost two ministers - Gwen Mahlangu-Nkabinde and Sicelo Shiceka - their jobs and forced the president to put national commissioner Bheki Cele on special leave.

Although the ANC has said it backs Madonsela, there are growing signs that some of her actions are irritating key personalities in government and the party.

She had to disassociate herself from moves by media groups and civil society organisations opposed to the controversial Protection of State Information Bill after ANC parliamentarians chastised her for overstepping the mark.

DA PARLIAMENTARY LEADER LINDIWE MAZIBUKO

The past year marked her official arrival on the political scene. Not only did Mazibuko play a leading role in the DA's hugely successful local government election campaign, she ended 2011 on a high by being elected the party's parliamentary leader.

All eyes will be on her to see how effective she is in using the parliamentary platform to win more hearts and minds for the DA ahead of the 2014 elections.

COSATU GENERAL SECRETARY ZWELINZIMA VAVI

Vavi has been at the helm of the trade union movement for more than 12 years and, as Cosatu prepares for its congress in September, questions will be asked about whether it is not time for him to move on to bigger things.

Will he leave Cosatu for one of the top positions in the ANC or SA Communist Party? It seems unlikely, given that he is seen as the glue that continues to hold the federation together.

But a year is a very long time in politics and anything can happen between now and September.