Hopeful SA farmers planting more as wetter summer forecast

25 October 2016 - 12:21 By REUTERS, BusinessLIVE
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SA’s summer rainfall areas can expect wetter conditions during the early and mid-summer periods, according to the latest report by the South African Weather Service.

The expected warmer conditions from the previous forecast have also subsided somewhat, which may be further evidence of wetter conditions in these periods, forecaster Cobus Olivier said.

The latest forecasts would be a relief to the agricultural value chain, which is still recovering from the effects of the 2015-16 drought.

"Uncertainty of these forecasts remains a concern, however, since factors such as the possible development of a La Niña phase — increased chances of wetter conditions — have not yet strongly manifested, and this usually casts doubt on the accuracy of the forecasting systems," Olivier said.

Easing farmers’ woes

Farmers intend to plant 25 percent more hectares of maize this season in the hope that decent rainfall will ease the hardship caused by last year's scorching drought, a poll showed on Monday.

South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) is expected to say farmers plan to sow 2.44 million hectares with maize, up from the 1.947 million hectares planted last year, according to an average estimate of five trading houses surveyed by Reuters. The range was 2.14 million to 2.7 million hectares.

The CEC will give its first forecast on intentions to plant on Wednesday for the 2016/17 maize growing season, which has already started on the eastern edge of the maize belt.

"We believe this year the farmers will get enough rain to plant 2.7 million hectares," said one trader.

An El Nino weather pattern, which ended in May, brought severe drought with blistering temperatures last season.

The CEC has pegged last season's harvest at 7.5 million tonnes, 25 percent smaller than the 9.95 million tonnes reaped the previous year but higher than initial expectations when the drought was really biting.

Another poor maize harvest would have serious implications for South Africa after white maize, the staple food, doubled in price last year, fuelling inflation.

The main white maize contract is down about 30 percent from record peaks over 5,200 rand a tonne scaled in January, but at 3,750 rand a tonne is still high by historical standards and could give grain farmers added incentive to spend money planting a bigger area.

Despite the El Nino weather pattern dissipating, drought conditions are still afflicting much of the country and temperatures are expected to remain above normal until mid-summer, the national weather service said earlier this month.

But longer-range forecasts hold out hope for more rain this season and recent days have seen welcome showers over parts of the parched maize belt.

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