Risky Sudan vote looms

Sudan's president risks losing power and oil if the south secedes in a looming referendum, considerations that may tempt him and his allies to delay or disrupt the vote.

People from Sudan's oil-producing south are widely expected to choose independence in the referendum, promised to them in a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of war with the north, and which is scheduled to take place on January 9.

President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his ruling northern National Congress Party (NCP) have been giving mixed signals about how they will behave before the vote.

"There is a dual track that the NCP is taking," said International Crisis Group analyst Fouad Hikmat.

"To the international community, the media and everyone, they say the referendum will happen on time and they are going to accept the results ... The second track is the real issue ...

"They need time to address their own political and economic vulnerabilities and vulnerabilities inside the NCP."

A civic group, which the south claimed was a front for the NCP, said it was preparing a legal challenge to halt registration for the vote, alleging irregularities.