hoodoo - I do not know whether to cry or not and my heart aches for the poor people of Zimbabwe. Ultimately they are the sufferers.
Let us look at the issue objectively. More than two years ago the Zimbabwe situation deteriorated badly when Zimbabweans trying to attend a prayer meeting to pray for improvement was attacked by the Police and some leading people arrested - inclusive of Tsvangirai and Sekai Holland. The assault on these people caused a major international outcry and the SADC met to discuss the issue.
Mbeki - who has protected Mugabe for years - tried his normal protection stand - but even some SADC members objected. Mbeki was consequently assigned the role of chief negotiator and he said afterwards that his role would be to ensure that the 2008 elections was universally accepted as a reasonable reflection of the will of the Zimbabwe people.
Negotiations started and there were some agreement on changes to the Electoral Act and some measures aimed at the liberalization of people to make the electoral situation more equal.
However, before the changes could take proper effect - Mugabe announced an election on 298 March 2008. He went further and negated most legislative changes by proclamation and Mbeki went to try and sort out the mess created by Mugabe.
Mugabe sent him packing and the election went on. However, there were two issues that resulted from the election changes initiated as a result of the Mbeki negotiations - the one allowed for more internal observers - and the other for posting of results outside each polling booth. Those two issues proved fatal for Mugabe and ZANU-PF. The one about Police Officers being forbidden in polling booths was over-ridden by Mugabe by proclamation.
The Mugabe actions would not result in free and fair elections in the normal sense of the word - but at least there was less violence than in 2002 and 2005.
The results were from Mugabe's perspective a disaster. He only got 27$ of the vote - although individual MP's of ZANU-PF did better. In a number of constituencies where ZANU-PF members were elected to Parliament - Mugabe lost in popular votes.
However, despite not meeting the SADC election requirements - in particular about the levelling of the playing field and the usage of state media for propaganda purposes and state funds to fund the election machinery of ZANU-PF - the SADC observers initially gave a fairly objective assessment of the election process and left Zimbabwe before the counting process was completed. It was later found that Gono used hard currency taken from private bank accounts for the funding of the process.
However, Mugabe and Mbeki believed that there was no chance of an MDC victory - or so they made people believe by their public utterances. Mugabe never took a chance and had a huge number of additional ballots printed - nearly 4 000 000 more than the actual number of voters. He also had duplicate numbered ballots printed and the ZEC person who brought this to light was murdered - allegedly by the CIO.
The election "disaster" from Mugabe's perspective - became evident to him on the Sunday after the election - when the ZEC reported to him and JOC that he only got 27% of the vote. JOC and Mugabe wanted the ZEC to announce that Mugabe won the election - but because of the data posted outside the polling booths that was obviously not possible.
However - JOC decided on the following two actions:-
* The results would have to be delayed - while ballot fraud was to be committed using the duplicate numbered ballots printed. This meant that Mugabe's votes had to be increased from 27% to 43% - thus getting Tsvangirai below the 50% plus 1 vote barrier. This took five weeks to achieve and in the meantime the election became free and fair and the counting was not declared as fair.
* The army deployed officers and 10 000 youths were employed to conduct a terror campaign in the run-off election. Murder, torture and rape became the norm and hundreds of thousands of people were displaced. There was also another 16 000 "war veterans on the Government payroll - so that 26 000 paid workers of Government were let loose on the public.
This time around the elections were again observed by the SADC - and the reports coming through from all parties concerned indicate a level of state violence of massive proportion. Even Mbeki could not get a free and fair assessment from observers and the whole run-off election was regarded as a sham. However, the results were announced within 48 hours and were obviously false. In cases of many urban polling stations here were virtually no votes cast - but thousands of votes 'counted".
Mugabe ended up with a minority in Parliament - although even in that case there were at least 48 constituencies - won by his party - where there were serious differences between results declared and results posted up at polling booths. In fact I have analyzed all the results and in the case of the presidential vote there are 98 constituencies where election fraud was evident.
Mugabe had not won the election and was not recognized as President - even by a number of African countries. He could not call Parliament into session - because his party was in the minority. In effect he had to govern by presidential decree and he was in a bad situation.
Mbeki - always his most faithful supporter - realized that Mugabe was in a serious predicament and sent in his negotiators. They were acutely aware of Mugabe's lack of mandate - but had to support him Mbeki consequently agreed to support a Government of National Unity as the only way to ensure that Mugabe effectively stayed in power.
That led to the signing of the GPA. Mbeki used all the power of the SADC to force Tsvangiari to sign the agreement. However, the document signed later on proved to contain fraudulent additions and changes made by Chinamasa.
When it became evident that Mugabe was not even considering himself bound by the agreement - the MDC said no more and a further SADC meeting was held in Pretoria. His faithful friend - Mbeki - was not in charge in SA anymore and some concessions had to be made to get the MDC into the arrangements and to ensure the formation of the GNU.
All the above led to the present situation. The GNU allowed for about 34 changes to be made to ensure compliance with the GPA signed in September 2008. There were also clarifications agreed upon at the January 2009 SADC meeting.
This brings us to the present situation. Of the 34 requirements set out in the GPA only four actually have been implemented thus far - and none of the conditions laid down at the January 2009 SADC meeting has been complied with. Mugabe has always regarded the GPA as an agreement to legitimize his rule and that he was in sole charge as in the past. He was not about to make any fundamental changes that could have a negative impact on his hold onto power.
That scenario was not conducive to the GNU lasting any length of time and it was doomed from the word go. There are two rocks here and they are not allowing for any real negotiations. ZANU-PF realize how weak they really are and that any concessions to meet with the GPA would reduce their support even further. It is already down to below 10% and can only be sustained by violence - which is already in e3vidence in rural areas. This was in fact confirmed by their own study submitted to the ZANU-PF Politburo.
Tsvangiarai has a support base saying that ZANU-PF is continuing with violence against them and they are beginning to react against the GNU As a politician Tsvangirai realized that his power is generated by the people and he has to respond to their demands.
The situation basically is that Mugabe cannot allow for the full implementation of the GPA - even violence would not help him to retain a reasonable level of support - so any further implementation of the GPA and January agreements cannot be countenanced. Mugabe’s power is based on the classic case of dictators as in a police state (the security and army establishments) He can ignore the wishes of the people completely and it would not affect his position at all as long as the security forces remain in his camp..
Tsvangirai on the other hand is under pressure from his own party to insist on the implementation of the full GPA and January 2009 agreements.
It looks to me as if the SADC is flogging a dead horse. Mugabe is not going to allow for the implementation of the full GPA - whilst Tsvangirai have to insist that it be implemented. Realistically Mugabe has a lot to lose if the GPA and January 2009 agreements are implemented - so he will rather destroy the GNU in the process than to allow for full implementation.
That would create image problems for the SADC and would end up in two choices,- namely -
* Expulsion of Zimbabwe from the SADC - like was done in the case of Niger; or
* to do nothing.
My own guess is they will take the second option and hope that the bloodshed and refugee problems will not increase - a forlorn hope - I believe.
The meeting today ended in deadlock and the parties are even further apart than they were previously. Entirely predictable and no surprises there.
My own assessment is that the 29 October SADC negotiations will not solve the problems and the SADC - to save face will insist on continuation of negotiations.. Basically flogging a dead horse.
By the way prior to implementation of the GNU Zimbabwe did not have a legitimate government - and they do not really have one now - so what is new?
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