Now Cyclone Zuma tears through Cosatu

Labour's battle over support for the ANC president is endangering unity, writes Sibusiso Ngalwa

COSATU sent a loud, clear message to the ANC government on Wednesday: heed the workers' cries or face their wrath. The medium was a strike by hundreds of thousands of workers who took to the streets around South Africa to protest against despised labour brokers and unpopular toll fees.

The strike also put under the spotlight growing divisions within the ANC-led tripartite alliance - and within Cosatu itself.

On Wednesday, at the march that brought central Johannesburg to a standstill, Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi shared the stage with expelled ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema. In Durban, Cosatu president Sidumo Dlamini appeared alongside SA Communist Party boss and cabinet minister Blade Nzimande.

No significant ANC leader was present at any of the marches. Perhaps this was because Cosatu had made an about-turn, after initially inviting all interested parties, when it became clear that DA leader Helen Zille had taken the invitation seriously. For Dlamini and like-minded Cosatu leaders, sharing a platform with their "class enemy" was not an option.

Despite Vavi's repeated assurances that the strike was "not about [the ANC's conference in] Mangaung", the manner in which it played out had the hallmarks of an ANC succession battle.

This year is crucial for the ANC, SACP and Cosatu: all three alliance partners will hold national elective conferences. But the main conference is that of the ANC in December; it will either re-elect President Jacob Zuma or see him toppled by his deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe - if the latter agrees to challenge the president.

Vavi and a section of Cosatu leaders have lost faith in Zuma, saying he has failed to deliver on the promises and resolutions adopted at the Polokwane conference.

On the other hand, Dlamini and others within Cosatu and Nzimande's SACP believe that the president remains the one leader who will lend a sympathetic ear to the left.

Malema's appearance at the main march in Johannesburg was a much-needed public relations boost for the embattled youth league leader. But for the federation, it exacerbated tensions that have been simmering for some time.

Vavi has found himself placed in Malema's corner as the youth leader continues to battle Luthuli House. The fact that thousands of workers who participated in the march demanded to be addressed by Malema when he appeared at the protest also sent a strong message about the support he enjoys within the labour federation.

This angered Dlamini, who publicly denounced Malema's presence at the march as "an error" and said he would seek an explanation from Cosatu leaders at the Johannesburg march.

While Dlamini seems eager not to offend Luthuli House, Vavi's irritation with the ANC is evident. Having fired a warning shot on Wednesday with the hugely successful strike, he told Zuma's government that the workers had "more bullets in the chamber".

A day later, he went a step further, telling a SA Democratic Teachers Union (Sadtu) education indaba in the Eastern Cape that the ANC risked losing power if it continued to arrogantly behave as if it would rule forever. "We have been told that we will govern until Jesus comes back. That is not going to happen ... people can see [the fights] ... they are not fools," Vavi said.

The rift between Vavi and Dlamini that is now playing out in the public has been a long time coming. The two effectively lead opposing groupings in the Cosatu central executive committee.

Vavi may be the most prominent and vocal of the two, but he does not enjoy the absolute support of Cosatu affiliates.

The National Union of Metal Workers of SA (Numsa) and Sadtu are among the powerful voices on the committee that back Vavi. L eaders of the National Union of Mineworkers and the public servants' union Nehawu back Dlamini's conciliatory approach towards Zuma and the ANC.

Zuma's approach to the federation has not helped matters. In April last year, he caused consternation at Cosatu House when his office invited Dlamini to a high-profile labour summit on job creation ahead of Vavi. Although the Presidency insisted that the invitation was initially sent to Vavi's office and that Dlamini was invited only when it had became clear that Vavi would not be available, trade unionists believed that Vavi had been snubbed because Zuma was "uncomfortable" with him.

This led to Dlamini being accused by Vavi's allies of selling out workers. Some called for his conduct to be investigated.

With the Cosatu elective congress only six months away, the federation looks set for a leadership showdown similar to the one that nearly split the trade union movement in 2007. Back then, Vavi found himself at loggerheads with then Cosatu president Willy Madisha. While Vavi backed Zuma's bid for the ANC presidency, Madisha sided with former president Thabo Mbeki.

Vavi has already made it publicly known that he will be available for re-election in September; Dlamini remains cagey about his intentions.

Depending on which faction emerges dominant at the congress, one of the two risks being kicked out. Even if the warring affiliates reach a compromise over who to support in the ANC, many would find it untenable for Dlamini and Vavi to continue working together.

With Cosatu split down the middle, a bloody conference will do neither leader any good. Any leader who leads without enjoying the support of all the structures would find himself presiding over ANC-type factional battles where opponents begin plotting for the next conference from the time their rival wins an election.

For Zuma, Cosatu's backing is crucial. At a recent Numsa political commission he declared himself a friend of the workers - which did not stop Numsa's deputy secretary-general, Karl Kloete, from speaking against Zuma's leadership.

"We will ensure this [ANC] NEC doesn't return," Kloete told a press conference.

Zuma's opponents within Cosatu realise, however, that the federation cannot on its own replace the ANC leadership in Mangaung. Without the backing of structures within the ANC, as was the case when they joined forces with the Fikile Mbalula-led ANC Youth League in 2007, removing Zuma will remain a pipe-dream.

Perhaps that is why they are flirting with Malema.

For Dlamini and his group, their political survival is now directly linked to the campaign to deliver a second-term for Zuma.

And all of this is at the expense of internal Cosatu unity.