The Big Read: The obsession with the matric pass rate of the Department of Basic Education and the public is not only misleading but encourages what economists call "gaming the system". Widespread gaming led to large increases in the pass rate from 1999 to 2003.

For example: principal A enrols 10 candidates and five pass, giving a pass rate of 50%; principal B holds back risky candidates, enrolling seven, and four pass, giving a pass rate of 57%. B is praised for the higher pass rate, but he enrolled and passed fewer candidates.

There is evidence that last year's pass rate improvements are at least partly attributable to gaming, what the department calls "culling", despite its protestations to the contrary.

A far better picture of the system's health would be obtained by looking at the number of pupils enrolling and passing each year, and at the quality of those passes.

The pass rate is an efficiency measure and not unimportant, but it makes sense only if both numbers and quality are increasing off the current very low base.

To understand the numbers, we should distinguish between part-time and full-time candidates.

The number of full-time candidates is dropping, whereas the number of part-timers is rising, resulting in increases in the total number of candidates of 30433 (5.2%) in 2009 and 21809 (3.5%) last year.

Of concern is the drop in full-time registrations. They decreased by 7706 (1.3%) in 2009 and 21771 (3.7%) last year. Since only full-time candidates are counted in calculating pass rates, moving candidates to part-time status manipulates the rate.

Only two provinces, Limpopo and Western Cape, had increases in full-time registration in 2009 and last year. Though modest, they indicate that schools in those provinces are trying to give more children greater educational opportunities.

The fall-off in school enrolment between grades 11 and 12 - about a third across the country - is a massive waste of potential. Reducing it should be a priority.

An exclusive focus on the pass rate encourages principals to withhold opportunity by failing students in grade 11 or insisting that they register as part-time candidates.

It is instructive to examine two indicators of systemic quality. First, the numbers of matriculants obtaining a bachelor-level pass increased by 22000 (26%) in 2008, 2423 (2%) in 2009 and 16674 (15%) last year. These are students who qualify to apply for bachelor registration as distinct from those who might register for diplomas or certificates, or who pass matric without qualifying for tertiary studies.

The spike in bachelor-level passes is not necessarily a positive development, considering the difficulties experienced by the universities over the past two years with a large rise in the number of ill-prepared first-year entrants.

A better view of quality is given by the numbers registering for and passing maths - this illustrates the problem that Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga acknowledged last week.

Nearly 36000 fewer candidates registered to write maths last year than in 2008, and nearly 9000 fewer passed. This indicates that principals are directing students away from maths towards the easier maths literacy, narrowing student options for further study. Increases in bachelor-level passes in the past three years are largely in the humanities, with fewer students qualifying to enter scientific and professional fields of study.

Motshekga's use of improved pass rates to declare victory hides a multitude of problems. The results are not nearly as positive as they appear at first glance.

The schooling crisis manifests itself at the end of high school in the low proportion of young citizens entering tertiary education, particularly in areas of scarce skills.

So it is recommended that top priority be given to improving throughput rates in the further education and training phase (grades 10 to 12), increasing the number of National Senior Certificate passes and improving the quality of passes.

The key to quality lies not only in increasing the number of pupils taking maths and science, but also in improving standards of teaching and learning and, even more important, in the teaching of languages, particularly the language of instruction.

• Taylor is senior research fellow at JET Education Services, visiting researcher at the University of the Witwatersrand and a member of Umalusi's assessment standards committee. He writes in his personal capacity.