With only 18 months to go before the ANC's elective national conference, the question on many people's lips is whether President Jacob Zuma will be retained as party leader.

The shortest and safest answer is that it is too early to tell. A year is a very long time in politics, especially in ANC succession politics, in which tactical alliances are formed and terminated on a very regular basis.

But there are a number of factors, so far, that seem to count in Zuma's favour.

The most important of these is that, despite obvious unhappiness with his leadership style in various ANC and alliance structures, there is still no recognisable challenger for his ANC job.

Many names are being mentioned as candidates in 2012, but unless those individuals start putting up their hands they will soon find that it is too late to enter the race.

Another factor is that, following a bruising ANC presidential race that nearly tore the movement in two in 2007, most of the party's structures are wary of another top-leadership war.

So even those who are clearly disillusioned with Zuma find it necessary to, time and again, assure everyone that they are not planning to oust him.

Even ANC Youth League president Julius Malema - arguably the president's loudest critic at the moment - saw fit on Sunday to distance himself from claims that the league wants Zuma out.

"Today we hear people who are fashionable claiming that they can protect President Zuma. They say we don't want Zuma, but they forget that we [the youth league] said after making Zuma president of the ANC [that] we were going to make him president of the country," Malema said in Thaba Nchu, Free State.

"There is nothing threatening Zuma. He is uncontested and, between now and 2014, no drunkard can wake up in the morning and think he can be president."

And then there is Cosatu, the trade union federation whose leaders played highly publicised roles in getting Zuma elected president.

To say that the federation is disappointed in him would be an understatement. But a draft report prepared for its forthcoming central committee meeting suggests that the federation is heavily in favour of Zuma and other senior ANC leaders being retained in December next year.

The only problem, Cosatu general-secretary Zwelinzima Vavi says in the report, is whether the federation's rank and file will agree.

"Given the shortcomings of the ANC leadership, will Cosatu be in a position to mobilise for their reinstatement?" Vavi asked.

But all of this is not to suggest that next year's conference - to be held in Mangaung, Free State - will not be highly contested.

Those who say Mangaung has the potential to make Polokwane look like a Sunday picnic are not exaggerating.

Even if the presidency is not contested, there are serious battles shaping up for other positions on the ANC national executive committee.

The most prominent of these is that of secretary-general, currently held by former unionist Gwede Mantashe.

The youth league, which will hold a four-day national conference this week, is expected to name Fikile Mbalula as its preferred candidate for Mantashe's job on Sunday.

The federation will not take this lying down and, in the draft report, calls on its members to "swell the ranks" of the ANC and ensure that its structures are dominated by "pro-working class" leaders.

Read along with the Communist Party's Sunday call for alliance partners to "unite", "close ranks" and "deal decisively" with "right-wing demagogy" - a code name for Malema and his comrades - the Cosatu report suggests that the Left is preparing for a fight with the league at next year's ANC conference.

At stake will be who gets the most seats on the national executive committee and therefore control the president and the country. Whether the president is Zuma or someone else - in the bigger scheme of things - would be of little significance.