AU detour augurs well for SA

Much has been said about Home Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma's unsuccessful bid to become the first woman, in almost 50 years, to occupy one of the continent's important seats.

The news that Dlamini-Zuma will not be replacing Jean Ping as chairman of the African Union Commission - a body responsible for the day-to-day running of the continental organisation - was greeted with sighs of relief in some political circles.

So universally respected is the former wife of President Jacob Zuma that at least one opposition party last week vowed to lobby for her retention as home affairs minister - a rare occurrence in South African politics.

The Independent Democrats, which still officially exists in parliament despite being swallowed up by the DA two years ago, said it would oppose South Africa's nomination of Dlamini-Zuma when elections for the post are held again in June.

"As a country still finding its feet in a young democracy, Dlamini-Zuma has proven to be one of but a few ministers who have managed an untarnished reputation as well as delivering excellent work.

"She has managed to achieve the first unqualified audit for the Department of Home Affairs since the dawn of South Africa's democracy. [she] is an asset to both the Zuma cabinet and the country," said the ID's Joe Mcgluwa.

No doubt Mcgluwa's sentiments are shared by many across the country, not least by those who have experienced the amazing transformation the once-maligned department has gone through since she became minister in 2009.

Dlamini-Zuma's track record in the government speaks for itself.

Bar her department's lack of good judgment in awarding playwright Mbongeni Ngema a R14-million contract to produce an Aids-awareness musical in 1995, Dlamini-Zuma's tenure as the health minister was excellent.

During the 10 years she served as foreign affairs minister, she helped South Africa punch above its weight on global issues - in the process earning herself a name worldwide as one of Africa's top diplomats.

It is, therefore, no wonder so many South Africans believe that losing her to an AU job in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, won't be such a good idea.

But I reckon it could be the best thing for both her and the country under current political circumstances.

If she stays on in the cabinet, you see, she might be lost for good to the public come the 2014 general elections.

There is an informal, yet serious push within the ANC for those ministers who have been in cabinet since Nelson Mandela became president in 1994 to retire from public office once the current term of office comes to an end.

The argument being advanced is that the likes of Dlamini-Zuma, Jeff Radebe and Trevor Manuel would have served in the national executive for 20 years and it was, therefore, time for them to give others a chance.

Those pushing this argument also tend to be sympathetic to the ANC Youth League's call for "generational mix".

It is yet unclear if their influence would be weakened by the league implosion that looks set to follow Julius Malema's imminent banishment to the political wilderness.

But if proponents of this argument are able to convince the majority of ANC members ahead of its June national policy conference, as well as the elective congress in December, Dlamini-Zuma will be among those who would soon be lost to public office.

Unless, of course, she is elected ANC president or deputy president in December in Mangaung.

Nominations for ANC leadership positions officially open in October, but Dlamini-Zuma's is among the names that are being shopped around for the deputy president by some of those seeking to replace her former husband with Kgalema Motlanthe, the current deputy president.

The home affairs minister has never publicly declared any interest in the top job - nobody does so in the ANC.

But seeing that she did unsuccessfully stand against Motlanthe for the ANC deputy presidency in 2007, it is safe to assume that she harbours some presidential ambition.

Within her party, there seems to be consensus that she is presidential material and that if the country is to have a female head of state in the near future, it would either be her or Defence Minister Lindiwe Sisulu.

What counts against Dlamini-Zuma, however, is that she used to be married to Zuma.

It should not, but it does.

Her admirers say it would be difficult to sell her as a candidate so soon after her ex-husband's tenure in office.

Moreover, if she avails herself of an anti-Zuma slate - like she did in 2007- and once again ends up on the losing side, her political career would be practically over.

But, by taking the AU commission detour, Dlamini-Zuma would avoid this political risk and appear above all the factions that are likely to emerge in the ruling party if this year's presidential race proves to be as acrimonious as the 2007 battle.

After a term or two as chairman of the AU Commission, the hard-working minister can then return to the country and later bid to become the ANC's and South Africa's first woman president.

That is if she wants to be the country's president.