Excuse me, but was that a raised hand I just saw? Was that Mathews Phosa's hand waving from afar? Has he, finally, girded his loins and put himself forward to lead the ANC?

The race for the ANC leadership has gone rather quiet lately, with no one throwing his hat into the ring. President Jacob Zuma, following the decline in fortunes of Julius Malema, seems to be master and commander of the ANC. His path to a second term as ANC president seems assured.

But this past weekend's events might show that he should not sleep so easy after all. The ANC Youth League issued two defiant press releases on Saturday announcing that Malema would be speaking at an "economic freedom" rally in Shatale, Bushbuckridge, in Mpumalanga. That was the first release, issued by the league's expletive-filled spokesman, Floyd Shivambu.

The second was from the league's Mpumalanga leadership and it was more defiant. The leaders said they rejected the disciplinary measures against the league's leaders and called the rally the "Unban the ANCYL Rally". The implication is that the ANC's measures against the league are a banning order.

The league announced that the rally would be addressed by Phosa and Malema. Phosa did not attend. But does Phosa agree with the league's position that it has been banned by the ANC? As Phosa is the ANC's No3, is he distancing himself from his fellow leaders' actions against Malema & Co?

The answer is academic. We know a few things about the state of the ANC's national working committee. We know it is divided, with Phosa, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe and a few others in support of Malema and Co. We also know that Zuma, secretary-general Gwede Mantashe and others have been standing up against the antics of the Malema-led ANCYL.

We know that whenever the ANCYL opens an envelope it will invite Motlanthe, Phosa, Housing Minister Tokyo Sexwale or Winnie Madikizela-Mandela. These are the leaders the league believes will save it from the wilderness of suspension from the ANC.

The problem is, these leaders have been afraid to raise a hand and show themselves prepared to stand against Zuma for the ANC presidency in Mangaung in December.

The league's preferred candidate is Motlanthe. But the man is the most circuitous, ponderous, non-committal individual in the ANC. He is, in classic ANC fashion, waiting for the people to call him. The perception about him, generally, is that he is scared of a fight.

Phosa has in the past made it pretty clear that he does not support his colleagues' measures against the league, despite the league leaders' arguments being demolished by Derek Hanekom (chairman of the disciplinary committee) and Cyril Ramaphosa (chairman of the appeals committee). To his credit, he seems to be the only senior ANC leader with the cojones to speak his mind despite the possibility of censure by Zuma.

Last month he told a rally in Limpopo: "I know Juju is worried about the [disciplinary appeal hearing] but I want to assure him that the ANC has no dustbin for comrades. If comrades make mistakes, we find a mechanism to address them."

He threw his weight behind the discredited Limpopo administration, saying that it seemed as though the national government was "stealing" Limpopo Premier Cassel Mathale's power.

Mathale is a key Malema backer and personal friend.

Phosa's actions are putting him on a collision course with his colleagues in the ANC's top six. Mantashe, the secretary-general, has already admonished him for his backing of Malema through the "dustbin" statement. Will there be action against him for the Mpumalanga rally yesterday?

Phosa's signal is interesting. Sexwale has gone quiet since appearing for Malema in disciplinary hearings late last year.

Motlanthe is a flip-flopper of note, even in front of his main supporters in the ANCYL. He left Thabo Mbeki at the church door in 2007 when the two had a deal that Motlanthe would run the government as state president while Mbeki ran the ANC as party president.

For all of them, though, the greatest enemy is time. There are only 10 months of electioneering left. The longer they stay scared of what Zuma might do, the longer they give him to consolidate his position. By the time they are out of the blocks it will be too late.

It will be interesting, therefore, to see whether Phosa pushes a little bit harder in the next few weeks and actually raises his hand.

Zuma has a penchant for shooting himself in the foot: his comments about the powers of the Constitutional Court this week are an example. He can be taken on, but those who want to unseat him have to start working on it soon.

Otherwise, by the time their campaigns start, it will be too little, too late.