Brace yourself for more of the same from Zuma

The fat lady has not yet sung but right now the only factor that can dislodge President Jacob Zuma from the presidency of the ANC is a combination of another Marikana massacre and a Sonono Khoza-type scandal.

Other than that, the man with the big house in Nkandla is through. Virtually every league of the ANC, plus the SA Communist Party and trade union federation Cosatu, are swatting each other aside to support the man.

Zuma's hapless opposition is stuttering to a halt, with Kgalema Motlanthe doing his usual flip-flopping at the launch of his biography last week and failing once again to speak clearly about his ambitions.

One of Motlanthe's key allies, Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula, is reported to have held a "fruitful" meeting with Zuma on Monday last week.

The anti-Zuma campaign cannot agree on its leadership. It is in disarray. The question therefore is what is a post-Mangaung ANC and South Africa going to look like under Zuma. The indications are already discernable. Here are some of them:

Economic uncertainty continues: Zuma's administration has failed to send out clear signals on economic policy since it took office.

It is neither fish nor fowl - on the one hand, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and Zuma himself offer proposals such as the youth wage subsidy, while the likes of Economic Planning Minister Ebrahim Patel oppose the idea. Who is in charge?

This is not the only issue on which there is lack of certainty.

Zuma's ANC has for four years now failed to put to bed the nationalisation debate, leading to massive harm to domestic and foreign investor confidence.

On Friday the ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded South Africa's long-term debt and currency ratings, and highlighted concerns about the ballooning illegal mining strikes.

S&P's decision was only two weeks after Moody's Investor Service also downgraded South Africa.

What does it mean when these agencies revise our ratings down? First, the cost of borrowing for the government, parastatals and private-sector players will go up.

The Moody's country downgrade last month triggered downgrades for the likes of Eskom, Telkom, Gold Fields and the top five commercial banks.

The ratings agencies continue to point towards lack of policy clarity in South Africa. Are we following Julius Malema's loony economic ideas or Gordhan's? The ANC continues to lurch between left and right. This uncertainty will lead to more downgrades. Confidence in South Africa will wane.

Our GDP growth will remain at an uninspiring 2.5% to 3.5% over the next few years, numbers that are not enough to give jobs to the 6.6million unemployed South Africans. Don't expect prosperity under the current ANC leadership and its policy trajectory. Get ready to remain a citizen of just another country muddling along, unable to take advantage of its membership of the Brics and its fast-disappearing status as the "gateway to Africa".

• Internal ANC politicking will get heated: Those who stand against Zuma's slate of leaders today must expect some sort of reckoning after Mangaung. Will Zuma embark on a winner-takes-all campaign? Think of the departure from the government of many ministers and directors-general allegedly aligned to Thabo Mbeki in 2008 and 2009. Will Zuma go after the Motlanthe-ites (if Motlanthe does not strike a deal with Zuma in the next few weeks)?

Wastage, corruption and securocrats: The wanton looting of taxpayers' money, such as that to build Zuma a palace in Nkandla, will not abate. Expect more of the same as security legislation is used to stop scrutiny of such looting. The likes of Public Works Minister Thulas Nxesi - who has started an investigation into who the whistle-blower on the R238-million Nkandla expenditure was, while failing to lift a finger to stop the rot itself - will be amply rewarded with promotions.

Loyalists such as Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga and Limpopo education MEC Dickson Masemola will most likely get promoted.

Cronies will be appointed to posts they do not deserve. At a policy level, expect the ministry of public enterprises to continue to feed these enterprises taxpayers' cash while claiming that they are essential to the building of a "developmental state". Ahem.

• Electoral stagnation: The ANC has been losing support at all levels in all provinces except KwaZulu- Natal in the past two national and local elections. In Eastern Cape it is losing members and it is worth noting how narrowly it won the Nelson Mandela Bay metro in 2011.

Zuma is an electoral liability. The ANC's failure to recognise this means that, no matter what new support it garners in KwaZulu-Natal, it will still lose support in provinces such as Gauteng, Western Cape and North West. This decline will continue in 2019.

By choosing Zuma in Mangaung, ANC members are hastening the day when the party loses national power.