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'It's not rocket science'

Economists are nothing if not resilient. Bouncing back from the sub-prime crisis, one of the brightest stars in the economics firmament, Professor Steven Levitt from the University of Chicago, has published Superfreakonomics, co-written with New York Times journo Stephen Dubner. It follows the wildly successful Freakonomics, which shifted over 3 million copies.

This duo uses statistics applied to economics data to prove a connection between Chicago school teachers and Sumo wrestlers (they all cheat) and other bizarre ties. If Levitt was at UCT Business School and Dubner worked for Sake24, the SA wine spittoon would be a fertile furrow to plow, given the recent tsunami of unlikely numbers.

Exhibit A is the Michelangelo International Wine Awards. According to the strict rules of the OIV, a French body that polices wine regulations, no more than 30% of wines entered can win a medal. This year's 1502 entries would mean a maximum of 451 medals, yet 522 were awarded.

Approached for comment, Sue van Wyk, the show's technical director, said: "If 15 wines end up with the same score - for example, 91.3 - it means all the wines lying on that score receive the appropriate medal and this applies in every class. So it is not rocket science really, or a contravention of any rules that more than 30% of wines get medals."

Since 15 judges (including a South African) produced the scores, clearly more than one decimal place would be involved in computing a combined score and the production of 71 extra medals would be unlikely. Another reason widely leaked was that, on the final day of judging, a room full of virgin wines was discovered - presumably generating another 71 medals when rated in haste.

No such 30% rule applied at Veritas last month. But how this translated to the merlot class winning the most golds is not explained. As Thelema winemaker Gyles Webb remarked: "Pinotage gets a bum rap in SA for producing hard wines. Merlot is the most difficult cultivar, responsible for most of the bitterness and toughness in our reds."

Something else for the intrepid economic duo to consider is the price of Veritas bottle stickers - R110 (excluding vat) per 1000 for bronze and R380 per 100 for gold. Which introduces a reason for rating inflation: the better a rating, the more money the organisers make selling medals.

That does not explain why WINE magazine gave seven wines five stars (out of five) in this month's issue. In the 16 years since the magazine launched, there have been only 33 five-star stunners. November's departure from the mean by a factor of 41 is surely no coincidence, as the Platter sighted wine guide awarded 41 five-star stunners itself in September, another record. You don't need to be Professor Levitt to ask: Is SA in the middle of a miraculous comet vintage or is there a more mercenary explanation?