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Sat May 26 12:04:40 SAST 2012

THE BIG READ: Cold war frontline moves from nukes to keyboards

Peter Apps, Reuters | 07 February, 2012 00:41
File picture of a paper keyboard.
Image by: THINKSTOCK

With worries growing about computer hacking, data theft and the risk of digital attacks destroying essential systems, Western states and their allies are cooperating closely than ever on cyber security.

But as they do so, the gulf between them and China and Russia - blamed for recent hacks and with a more authoritarian view of the internet - grows ever wider.

Last week, Chinese officials turned down invitations to a conference of military and civilian experts on cyber security in London, telling organisers Defence IQ they would not attend due to a "low tide" in relations with the US, particularly its military. A senior Russian official pulled out, citing a failure to obtain a visa in time - though some suspected that might have been an excuse. Western officials admit progress towards international agreement on "norms of behaviour" in cyberspace remains a distant dream.

"It is worrying," said John Bassett, a former senior official at British signals intelligence agency GCHQ and now senior fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute.

"If anything, in the last year the differences have become more apparent and there seems to have been little success in tackling them. There is a risk it could end up damaging the wider relationship."

Russia and China, it seems, have little appetite to tackle data theft while the West has no intention of acquiescing to Russian and Chinese demands for a more controlled internet.

Jim Lewis, a former US foreign service officer and now senior fellow at Washington DC think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies participates in regular semi-official meetings with China on cyber security.

"There are several things coming together here," he said.

"There is the political difference over the freedom and future of the internet. Then that gets tied together with theft of commercial property - which becomes part of wider trade issues."

Already, Western officials and academics involved in talks said discussions on cyber security between East and West have become more difficult and more complex than on any other issue. In public, US and other Western officials almost always decline to detail where they believe the spate of recent cyber attacks have come from.

In the past year, the attacks have included attempts to break into computer systems at the US State Department and British Foreign Office and attacks on Google, the NASDAQ and the International Monetary Fund, among others.

But privately, and occasionally on the record, they often point the finger at Russia and China. Both angrily deny involvement, saying they, too, are victims of hacking. But many Western security specialists said the evidence against both nations - particularly China - has become increasingly compelling.

"China is currently engaged in a maximal industrial espionage effort that it justifies internally in terms of a catch-up strategy [with the West]," said Thomas Barnett, chief analyst at political risk consultancy Wikistrat and a former strategist for the US Navy.

"The key question is: Can China assume the mantle of intellectual property rights respect fast enough to avoid triggering economic warfare of the West? If it can't, then this is likely to get ugly."

Perhaps more serious than worries over hacking is the philosophical gulf between East and West. Last year, both Russia and China saw a rise in internet-fuelled unrest they blamed in part on the West.

Beijing's censors increasingly struggled to control micro-blogging on their tightly regulated internet, while recent protests against Vladimir Putin are seen as further fuelling Russian desire for control.

In the run-up to the London meeting, Moscow and Beijing released a suggested "code of conduct" for the global internet that would give national governments more control over the internet within their borders. But Western states swiftly shot down such suggestions.

Despite British hopes that the Chinese and Russians would not feel "ambushed" at the London summit, they would have found much to dislike there.

"The Chinese see the internet as an American construct, designed to provide the US with military and commercial advantage," said Lewis, adding that Beijing suspected the West of fostering dissent within its borders as well as building powerful cyber weaponry.

With almost every nation dramatically ramping up military spending on cyber security - including offensive "cyber warfare" capabilities to attack essential networks, turn off power grids and cause massive disruption - some fear more serious confrontation.

In a worst-case scenario, a single damaging cyber attack could spark a wider conventional war or even nuclear confrontation.

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