Since the cabinet announced 12 years ago that it would acquire aircraft, patrol ships, helicopters and submarines, the ANC government has resisted calls for an investigation of the multibillion-rand deal.

But what appears to be a capitulation to growing pressure might merely be a cynical strategy to avoid airing possibly dirty arms deal laundry in an open court.

By calling for a commission, Zuma will neatly sidestep having the Constitutional Court hear anti-arms activist Terry Crawford-Browne's challenge to have an inquiry.

Instead of the court deciding the terms of the inquiry, Zuma will now have the upper hand in choosing his chairman and deciding the scope of the investigation.

It is already suspected that Zuma's decision yesterday was informed by advice that Crawford-Browne might be successful in court - as businessman Hugh Glenister was earlier this year when the Constitutional Court ruled that part of the legislation allowing the disbanding of the Scorpions and establishment of the Hawks was constitutionally invalid.

Zuma will have his own reputation and future to consider when he lays down the terms of reference for the inquiry.

The corruption charges that were brought against him and eventually dropped in 2009 are linked to the arms deal and the dealings of convicted fraudster Schabir Shaik.

With his political future under a cloud as he heads to the ANC's elective conference next year, Zuma is unlikely to want to be caught in the commission's firing line.

And so we wait, hopeful but not entirely convinced that the commission will open a window on a deal that many view as the starting point of extreme corruption in the new South Africa.