OPINION: Why the stalemate over Gordhan suits Zuma’s long-term strategy

30 August 2016 - 12:05 By Ivor Sarakinsky
subscribe Just R20 for the first month. Support independent journalism by subscribing to our digital news package.
Subscribe now
President Jacob Zuma and Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. File Photo.
President Jacob Zuma and Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. File Photo.
Image: GALLO IMAGES

There is a wonderful term in chess that describes a situation in which one is forced to move‚ and whatever move made‚ makes one’s position weaker.

A "zugzwang" is what chess players aim for to place their opponents in a lose-lose predicament. Achieving this depends on positional play over a period of time as well as identifying a sequence of moves with camouflage‚ bluffs and sacrifices that culminate in the opponent having no choice‚ but Hobson’s.

We know that President Jacob Zuma is an avid chess player and the "zugzwang" sheds light on the investigation and possible prosecution of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. This is not in the well-publicised way already covered in the media‚ though.

At one level‚ it is a fight over control of the National Treasury and the fiscus. This agenda goes back almost a year to the firing of Nhlanhla Nene. The issues at this level relate to the control of government spending and the refusal of the Treasury to support SAA and the procurement of nuclear power infrastructure.

With Gordhan back as finance minister‚ Zuma loyalist and SA Revenue Service (SARS) commissioner Tom Moyane appears to have used his control of the archive to surface selective information that is allegedly embarrassing to his one-time predecessor.

Clearly‚ the controversial SARS investigative unit uncovered highly sensitive dealings between powerful people.

By alleging impropriety‚ the Zuma camp is able to undermine the information collected‚ as well as the standing of Gordhan. Having been forced to reinstate Gordhan‚ it seems as though the strategy is to undermine him‚ thereby limiting his power to hold the line on government spending.

At another level‚ the National Treasury‚ through its monitoring of procurement by the chief procurement officer‚ has emerged as a thorn in the side of powerful groups benefiting — improperly‚ it seems — from government contracting processes. Gupta-associated companies are reported to be under scrutiny for deals with Eskom‚ Denel and Transnet. In acting as an exemplary custodian and steward of the national purse‚ Gordhan has angered some powerful and politically connected people.

Read why the slow ratcheting up of pressure‚ with the most recent summoning of Gordhan by the Hawks to sign a warning statement‚ is an attempt to set a "zugzwang" trap‚ in Business Day

- TMG Digital/BDlive

subscribe Just R20 for the first month. Support independent journalism by subscribing to our digital news package.
Subscribe now