South Africa may face an increasing risk of getting hit by tropical cyclones within the next 40 years, according to scientists at the University of the Witwatersrand.
Looking at data for the south-west Indian ocean over the past 161 years, Jennifer Fitchett, a PhD student in the Wits School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies (GAES) and co-author Professor Stefan Grab, also from GAES, found that as the oceans have warmed, the minimum sea temperatures for cyclones to occur (26.5 degrees Celsius) have moved south.
So have the storms.
“This is not what we expected from climate change. We thought tropical cyclones might increase in number but we never expected them to move,” Fitchett said in a statement.
According to the university South Africa is already seeing the impact of this, as cyclones in Mozambique cause flooding in Limpopo.
In the past 66 years, six cyclones have hit Mozambique head on. Four of those were in the last 20 years.
“This definitely looks like the start of a trend,” Fitchett said.
The real worry though is that the 26.5 degrees Celsius temperature line (isotherm) has been moving south at a rate of 0.6 degrees latitude per decade since 1850, according to Wits.
“At current rates we could see frequent serious damage in South Africa by 2050,” Fitchett said.
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