Late last year, after a season in which New Zealand (narrowly) lost just once in 11 tests, I wrote a column saying they would not win the Rugby World Cup this year.

Besides the usual stirring that goes with the job, I had a few reasons for a rather brave call.

I felt the better teams in the world would catch up; that old Ted (All Blacks coach Graham Henry) can be a bit like Juju in a Breitling shop when it comes to selection; and the fact that playing the tournament at home could have the double-edged effect of putting them under even more pressure to win.

After their first two Tri-Nations games, said prediction looked sufficiently ridiculous as the All Blacks swept aside a Springbok B team and a Wallabies side with history on the mind on successive weekends.

The notable thing about the win over the Boks was that they had dramatically improved from their game against Australia, yet they still got six tries put past them.

The important thing about the ambitious Wallabies being subdued at Eden Park was the venue: it is where the All Blacks should come back to try and win the Webb Ellis Cup to put New Zealanders out of their World Cup misery in October.

Two Tri-Nations defeats later - one to the Boks with a B team, and the other after needling Australia by suggesting they had never won the tournament - and New Zealanders, a fretful bunch at the best of times, are having re-runs about the nightmares of the last five World Cups.

But I reckon losing those two matches is the best thing that could have happened to New Zealand.

If sportsmen have a history of repeating certain things because they make them successful, then the All Blacks should be relieved that they will have failed to win a Tri-Nations title in a World Cup year.

At long last, one common thread from their miserable past has been broken.

The second important thing to emerge from those defeats is that their own countrymen have begun to doubt the idea that this World Cup will be their coronation.

I've always been of the idea that people in their 20s largely work to prove others wrong, while those in their 30s and up work to prove themselves right.

It's a slight change of direction, motivation-wise, but it is a big shift because you're moving from a negative to a positive stimulus.

The All Blacks find themselves having to draw on negative motivation because it seems nobody seems to believe they can win the World Cup.

This is the very same laager mentality on which the Bulls, John McEnroe and many others have built their dynasties.

Being favourite makes sportsmen do silly things, just ask Usain Bolt. All the Jamaican sprinter had to do was stay in his blocks for another second and jog his way into history. But he had to try and impress with a fast time.

And Australia and South Africa haven't suddenly caught up with New Zealand.

Rather the Boks, who enjoy the status of being the one team whose game consistently troubles the All Blacks (France only do it once every four years), gave the Wallabies a glimpse of how to beat Henry's team in Port Elizabeth.

The method is simple: you don't take the high road by trying to play their rugby to beat them. You drag them down to the gutter and mug them.

So will the All Blacks win it this time?

I hope not, but they certainly have the bloodied nose which will make them put up a proper fight this time around.