The stats favour the Lions in their Super Rugby semifinal‚ but…

29 July 2016 - 12:24 By Craig Ray

Statistically the Lions have an advantage over the Highlanders going in to their Super Rugby semifinal on Saturday‚ but so often stats winners are losers on the field. The Highlanders‚ defending champions‚ generally find a way to win even though the stats suggest they shouldn’t win as much as they do.Take their handling errors as an example. They have a competition high one error per six carries. That translates to turnover ball and that’s a part of the game the Lions thrive on. They are Super Rugby’s leaders in turnovers‚ making one for every 11 tackles.But somehow the Highlanders are able to overcome their mistakes better than most because they have the best defence in the competition. They scramble brilliantly and they have the most prolific kicking game in the tournament as well. Often their handling errors are not in critical defensive zones on the field because they tend to only start playing “running” rugby when they are on their opponents’ territory. Handling errors are one thing‚ but where they occur is even more critical.But the Lions are a much more confident team since their last meeting‚ which the South African pacesetters lost 34-15 in Dunedin against a Highlanders side that took every chance that came their way that weekend.Given the tough travel schedule the Highlanders have endured in the past month – Dunedin-Port Elizabeth-Buenos Aires-Dunedin-Canberra-Johannesburg – the Lions must be feeling confident of turning the screw in the final quarter of the match again‚ just like they did against the Crusaders last weekend.And just as they did in the quarterfinal the Lions will need to make a fast start‚ defend well when they don’t have the ball‚ handle the Highlanders’ kicking threat and don’t allow their pack to gain parity.KEY SKIRMISHES:Faf de Klerk vs Aaron Smith – The All Black is without doubt the world’s best halfback at the moment. Smith’s crisp service is peerless and his ability to read the game and take exactly the right option is what marks him as a great. De Klerk will have to be at his scrappy best‚ harassing Smith into poor decisions. The Lions pack can give their little scrumhalf an advantage here by dominating the tight loose.Jaco Kriel vs James Lentjes – Little is known about the Highlanders openside‚ but the fact that he has been selected to start suggests he has the ability to compete with Kriel in the battle on the ground. The Lions and Springbok flank is a master pilferer with 15 turnovers won this year. Kriel is also a prolific ball carrier with 134 carries this season and 15 of them have been converted to clean breaks.Ruan Combrinck vs Waisake Naholo – The two wings are unlikely to directly compete‚ but are gamebreakers and essential attacking weapons. Comparing their stats is tricky because Naholo has played fewer than half the minutes Combrinck has in 2016‚ yet still managed to score seven tries. Combrinck has touched down eight times‚ but it’s his work off the ball that creates chances for his teammates. Combrinck has made 28 clean breaks‚ just two fewer than tournament leader Johnny McNichol.Franco Mostert vs Tom Franklin – Mostert is a tireless ball-carrier for the Lions and vital to putting them on the front foot. It’s a role Franklin performs well for the Highlanders as well. Both are valuable sources of lineout ball but Mostert is that little bit more efficient in terms of steals. He’s nicked four off opponents this season compared to Franklin’s one. - TMG Sport..

There’s never been a more important time to support independent media.

From World War 1 to present-day cosmopolitan South Africa and beyond, the Sunday Times has been a pillar in covering the stories that matter to you.

For just R80 you can become a premium member (digital access) and support a publication that has played an important political and social role in South Africa for over a century of Sundays. You can cancel anytime.

Already subscribed? Sign in below.



Questions or problems? Email helpdesk@timeslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00.