An explosive documentary on Fifa corruption, to be screened by the BBC tomorrow, could kill off England's bid to host the 2018 World Cup finals.

The documentary, by investigative reporter Andrew Jennings, is expected to make new graft allegations against Concacaf president Jack Warner, among others. Warner commands three votes in Thursday's double poll for 2018 and 2022: his own and those of fellow Concacaf members Chuck Blazer of the US and Guatemala's Rafael Salguero.

In a bid to pre-emptively placate Warner, British Prime Minister David Cameron had the Trinidadian over for lunch in London on Thursday. Cameron even asked newly engaged royal couple Prince William and Kate Middleton to make a personal appeal to him. Warner is said to be wavering between the Russian and English bids.

England bid chief Andy Anson is furious about the BBC's decision to air the documentary tomorrow. "I'm incredibly disappointed with the timing," he said recently. "If they believe there's a journalistic reason for this, they could have done it any time in the last two years. To do it like this is sensationalism. It's not patriotic."

Anson's appeal for a later flighting was rejected by BBC director-general Mark Thompson. The England bid have also written to Fifa to distance themselves from the Sunday Times investigation that resulted in this month's vote-selling probe.

The contests for the 2018 and 2022 hosting rights are the closest since the battle for the 2006 tournament, which was decided in Germany's favour by Charles Dempsey's abstention.

In the 2018 race, England, Russia and Spain-Portugal are the leading contenders. Australia and the US are the most credible bidders for 2022, with Qatar the strongest of the outsiders in that race.

Frantic lobbying will continue all week in Zurich, with the prime targets being members from regions that are not bidding for either tournament - South America and Africa. Other potential kingmakers are members whose own national bids are likely to drop out in the first round of voting, such as Belgium's Michel D'Hooghe.

The Belgium-Netherlands 2018 bid is unlikely to survive the first round. Japan and South Korea's bids for 2022 are also tipped to fail, thus giving pivotal second-round votes to those two countries' committee members, Junji Ogura and Chung Mong Joon.

Success will require astute scenario planning - a task Danny Jordaan's South Africa 2006 campaign carried out flawlessly, only for the doddering Dempsey to mysteriously defy his confederation's instructions.

This time around, one man's missteps have already changed the field: the suspension of executive member Reynald Temarii has deprived Australia of one vote in the 2022 race.

The Oceania Football Federation leadership met yesterday in Auckland to decide on a way forward: they want to appoint a new voting member in Temarii's place, but Fifa will not permit this unless the Tahitian resigns.

If he does so, then Papua New Guinea's David Chung is poised to take office and cast a vital vote for Australia.