Third coal-fired power station looms

A Third coal-fired power station may be the only feasible option to ensure short-term power supply for South Africa, despite the government's recent commitments to a less carbon-intensive economy, predicts consultancy firm Accenture.

The government has undertaken to build six new nuclear plants and add 17800MW of renewable energy to the country's grid by 2030.

The energy map, or Integrated Resource Plan, shows South Africa will need 55GW, or 11 large power stations, to secure supply in the next 20 years.

Accenture energy executive Ken Robinson said the plan means the government has to sign off on a licence for a new power station every two years.

However, state-owned power utility Eskom is about three years behind.

In the run-up to the 17th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties, or COP17, starting in Durban on November 28, the Department of Energy concluded its first bidding window to procure 3725MW of renewable capacity from independent power producers.

Energy Minister Dipuo Peters said recently that bids to build a new nuclear plant would be sought next year.

But Robinson said an honest assessment of targets to reduce carbon emissions indicate that building a third coal-fired power station is probably the best way to meet the country's short-term energy needs.

"I expect that Eskom will sign off on a licence for a new power station by next year at the latest. I am almost certain that it will be coal-based, simply because coal-powered technology has been proven, while nuclear is still uncertain and both nuclear and renewable are deemed expensive."

Robinson expects South Africa to turn to nuclear power as the base load electricity technology in about 10 years' time but, according to the Integrated Resource Plan, it should already be in nuclear mode by 2020 to avoid the sort of power cuts experienced in 2008.

This indicates that a third coal-fired power station will be the only base-load technology that can fill the gap in the meantime, resulting in South Africa moving further away from its aim of cutting emissions by 34% by 2020.

Eskom CEO Brian Dames has previously indicated that the two power stations now under construction - Kusile in Mpumalanga and Medupi in Limpopo - will not be the last coal-fired power plants built in South Africa.

The utility has run into opposition, with protestors at the site of its new Kusile plant opposing construction of one of the biggest coal-fired power stations in the world.

A recent Greenpeace report claimed that Kusile's external and hidden costs could be as high as R60-billion a year.

Greenpeace climate-change campaigner Melita Steele said Eskom's argument that coal was the cheapest option for a developing country like South Africa was untrue, as South Africans also had to pay for factors associated with coal-based electricity like climate change, health, coal mining and water use.

Steele said a third coal-fired power station would be devastating. "Coal-based electricity is unsustainable, polluting and socially devastating.

"What we need is investment in clean and sustainable power infrastructure."

Robinson agreed that these factors are important considerations. Water use is one of the main concerns associated with coal-generated electricity. "Water is going to be a much bigger constraint ... than coal or carbon in the not-so-distant future."

By 2025, up to 230million people will be living in African countries facing water scarcity. Another 460million will be in water-stressed countries, placing extreme pressure on businesses, Talbot & Talbot research showed.