Reading between the lines of electoral rivals' slick poster promises

IT is a political truism that elections are won between elections, but you can hardly believe that when the party political machines roll out their massive advertising campaigns leading up to May 7.

Behind the scenes right now, party strategists and communications experts are carefully crafting their parties' respective election campaigns to win you over.

At the heart of this process is possibly the most honest and authentic part of party politics: they have done their research and they know what your preconceived notions about them are. They have a clear understanding of what you feel about their performance and track records and, importantly, what it would take to convince you to vote for them.

But when the posters, radio adverts and TV interviews start crowding out our airspace with slogans and messages, they are never completely forthright with you about what they mean. Instead, they broadcast scientifically chosen messages that silence their natural competitors, dispel your concerns and seek to make the all-important connection that translates into your vote.

So what if they did not have to posture and carefully attenuate messages for your benefit? What if they could just say it like it is? What would they say?

ANC

COMING off a 2009 base of 65%, the ANC has been a poor performer worsened by internal divisions and high-profile examples of corruption and nepotism. Its support seems all but certain to decline - the only question is to what extent.

What it is likely to say: The ANC will simply, and brutally, ignore all claims of corruption and ineptitude and own the two things that no other political party in South Africa can claim with any sort of credibility.

First, it will tell anyone who will listen how many million jobs, houses and schools, and so forth, it has delivered - notwithstanding what could or should have been delivered.

Less explicitly, but woven tightly into every speech, will be the narrative that the ANC freed South Africa from apartheid and is the party of Nelson Mandela. The struggle and the ANC's heroics will become less relevant to young voters, and it is essential that the party retain this historical connection to the glorious victory of the past.

The slogan it would never use - but really mean: If you're black, you are ANC

DA

THE Democratic Alliance expects to improve on the 16% of 2009 on the back of comparatively solid delivery records where it governs in Cape Town and the Western Cape. It will hope that disaffected black middle-class ANC voters are able to leap-frog abstaining and mark their ballots for the DA.

What it is likely to say: The DA will most certainly campaign on its objectively good and corruption-free delivery record where it governs. It will leverage its young black leaders such as Mmusi Maimane and Lindiwe Mazibuko to assure mostly disaffected young black voters that it is not a party of and for minorities alone, and it will spend millions running a campaign in Gauteng that constructs the perception that the ANC can be beaten.

The slogan it would never use - but really mean: It's safe for blacks to vote DA. If you're black , don't worry, you can trust us

EFF

THE Economic Freedom Fighters has harnessed the anger and disappointment at the ANC's lack of performance on the back of a cult of personality and populist and belligerent communist demands.

What it is likely to say: In the manner that propelled him to political fame, Julius Malema will use every sentence from the Revolutionaries Handbook to communicate his seven "non-negotiable pillars".

The slogan it will never use - but really mean: The ANC has failed; let's take what we want

COPE

FEW South African parties have imploded to the same farcical degree as the Congress of the People has. A potentially significant player at 7% in 2009, the party has torn itself to pieces in an ongoing drama of low-intensity guerrilla warfare.

What it is likely to say: COPE's lack of ideological coherence and inability to communicate anything more than the virtues of its opposing factions make it unlikely that the party will be able to devise a communications plan, let alone deliver it. Expect a bland rehash of all the others' position on jobs, corruption and education.

The slogan it would never use - but really mean: The ANC without Zuma

IFP

THE Inkatha Freedom Party has fallen a long way from the dizzying heights of 1994 - from a healthy 10% of the national ballot, including a sizeable number of non-Zulu voters, it managed a paltry 4% in 2009, all of whom were Zulu. It continued to lose Zulu voters to either apathy or the ANC in the 2011 elections.

What it is likely to say: Judging by its "make things happen" registration campaign and posters erected, bizarrely as ever, in Mangosuthu Buthelezi's Cape Town suburb of Constantia, expect nothing more than one more generic message with no apparent strategic consideration.

The slogan it would never use - but really mean: Zulus don't vote ANC

FF+

THE Freedom Front Plus, haemorrhaging white voters to the DA since 1999, has taken a gamble and opted for a marriage of convenience with the ANC in return for influence (and access to power) for its electorate. This has not paid the dividends it was imagining for a multiplicity of reasons: being linked to a poorly performing ANC government, no real executive power to pursue a distinctively FF+ agenda, and the party's inability to drive issues in the media. All told, the FF+ will do well to hold on to its 0.8% from 2009.

What it is likely to say: Without the slightest hint of irony, the FF+ will campaign for the protection of white minority rights from the ANC. Expect more variations of its "Stop the ANC" slogan with special attention given to issues such as affirmation action and farm safety.

The slogan it would never use - but really mean: We've made a deal with the devil to protect Afrikaner heritage

Agang

MAMPHELA Ramphele launched Agang last year and has succeeded only in building a profile for the party as a consequence of her one-week relationship with the DA. The fallout from this debacle will not help a party reeling under organisational and, reportedly, financial distress. Agang will be lucky to reach 1% in the election.

What it is likely to say: Ramphele is likely to stick to her script that South Africans want to "move beyond the politics of race" and "build something new". These are perfectly fine "motherhood and apple pie" thoughts, yet they fail to pass muster as a credible political offering to a selected target market.

The slogan it would never use - but really mean: We are Mamphela Ramphele

ACDP

THE African Christian Democratic Party has never broken past the 2% mark with its offer of a conservative Christian-based policy concentrating on social issues such as abortion and homosexuality. The fact of the matter is that South African Christian voters seem happy to find homes in the bigger, more mainstream parties.

What it is likely to say: The ACDP always makes an effort to resonate with its voters by concentrating on Christian values.

Although it will surely continue along this tack, it is unlikely to push its messaging to the point where it divides opinion, makes strong emotional connections and thereby drives Christian voters back into its fold.

The slogan it would never use - but really mean: Only God can save us now (and we are his party)

• Clelland is CEO of Resolve Communications and has managed communications on election campaign teams on three continents. @njclelland