For a man whose company has just signed a $4.5-billion (R65-billion) deal to build four huge ships at a time when the global economy is still adrift in the doldrums, Gianni Onorato exudes an enviable air of calm. The CEO of MSC Cruises, the passenger arm of the vast Mediterranean Shipping Company empire, Onorato lists the company's operations - cargo shipping, the cruising division, port and terminal operations and ferries - and shrugs. "Our business is the sea," he says.Allan Foggitt, sales and marketing director of MSC Cruises' South African operation, offers a more colourful view. "These guys have got balls," he says.Foggitt is, to use a yachting term, not wide of the mark.Along with the four new vessels, to be called the World Class, the company is spending another $5-billion on seven more liners to be built in Italian yards. The new builds will double MSC's Cruises' fleet to 23 ships by 2026.story_article_left1The four giants are to be built at the STX shipyard in Saint-Nazaire, France, with the first vessel due in service in 2022. At 200000 tons and capable of carrying 5400 passengers in 2700 staterooms each, they will rival the biggest cruise liners currently afloat and will hoist MSC Cruises' market share to 4.5million passengers a year.This, along with the line's Renaissance programme in which four smaller ships are being lengthened by welding a pre-built 24m section into the middle, means the company is on the hook for $10-billion."It's an ambitious plan," Onorato admits.Yet there is plenty of wriggle room. Around 23million people worldwide take a cruise every year, 13million in North America and 6.5million in Europe, and Onorato is not alone in an unshakable belief that the potential for growth is huge."We believe the industry has very low penetration in the world tourism industry overall," he says.The cruising industry is one of the world's fastest-growing businesses. It is relatively young, too - just five decades ago, much of the business comprised canny southern European and Norwegian ship owners operating a motley fleet of small ocean liners around their respective patches - but it has boomed in the past two decades as travellers seek new experiences, hassle-free holidays and, crucially, value for money.Peter Shanks, development director for UK-based cruise retailer Imagine Cruising, says demand has been driven partly by a new approach to developing destinations."As the cruise lines have increased capacity they have had to spread the ships across more destinations," he says. "Ten years ago it was a case of the Med or the Caribbean. Now there are multiple options to those key destinations and we have also seen growth in Alaska, Australia, New Zealand, South America and Asia as more cruise lines deploy their ships there."Now worth about $40-billion a year - a figure based on cruise guests each spending $100 to $150 on average a day - the industry is dominated by a handful of big players who, along with a flotilla of smaller cruise lines, offer anything from sun-drenched rambles around the Caribbean on massive floating resorts to transatlantic crossings and voyages up the Amazon River and to Antarctica on specialist vessels.mini_story_image_hright1MSC Cruises' share of the global market is about 7% - or about 1.7million passengers a year, says Onorato. Other big lines include Royal Caribbean International (17%), Norwegian Cruise Lines (9.5%) and Carnival Cruise Lines (21.3%). Carnival also owns nine other lines, including heavyweights Costa Cruises and Princess Cruises, boosting its overall market share to just over 48%, according to a report on cruisemarketwatch.com.All the lines have new ships on order, many of which are behemoths. Royal Caribbean's Harmony of the Seas - which sets sail on its maiden voyage from Southampton this month - weighs 227700 gross tons and can carry 5470 passengers. The ship is only slightly bigger than its two predecessors, which weigh in at 225000 gross tons each.Shipworkers in Europe - which has the only three yards capable of building the kind of big vessels that the cruise lines want - are delighted."The yard order books are full," says George Argyropoulos, MD of Johannesburg-based cruise agency Cruises International. "People cannot just walk into a yard and order a ship."That was probably a key factor in this week's move by global leisure and entertainment group Genting Hong Kong to buy Nordic Yards' three shipyards in Germany for à230.6-million (R3.7-billion).The company said the deal would give it the expertise to build a fleet of ships for its three brands, Crystal Cruises, Dream Cruises and Star Cruises."They couldn't wait," says Argyropoulos, "so they bought themselves a yard."story_article_left2As big as the new ships are, cruise companies reckon there is little danger of saturating the market."Demand is growing," says Argyropoulos. "There might be a short-term glut but looking at the medium to long term, demand is going to outpace the growth of the fleet."Much of that demand, the cruise lines hope, will come from China, whose potential is still largely untapped.China, says Shanks, is a "strategic driver" for the major lines. "All the key players are building and deploying new ships specifically for that market," he says. "They may well have pushed the boat out a little too far but the market projections are compelling."Onorato agrees. "China is a huge market," he says, noting that MSC will base a ship there this season for the first time. The line also plans to expand in Cuba, basing two ships in Havana, and will continue to grow the South African market, where it is the only player."South Africa is 150,000 guests a year," he says."That's a low number but there's a new middle class coming up. We are there to catch it."ashp@sundaytimes.co.za..