Inflation, growth vie for rates priority

15 May 2016 - 02:00 By NTSAKISI MASWANGANYI

The jury is out on whether concern over lacklustre economic growth or inflation will take priority when the Reserve Bank monetary policy committee decides on interest rates on Thursday.The consensus is for the committee to leave the repo rate unchanged at 7%, but some economists still think the bank will prefer to focus more on its price stability mandate and raise rates by 25 basis points as inflation is still expected to be outside the 3%-6% target band for some time.Disappointing mining and manufacturing data last week, unemployment escalating to an almost eight-year high, and slowing household spending are factors that all support unchanged rates as they point to low economic growth.MMI Holdings economist Sanisha Packirisamy is among the economists who see the bank leaving rates unchanged this week.story_article_left1"With the bank noting that monetary policy was still in a very gradual interest rate hiking cycle, we expect them to pause at the upcoming meeting, given that they have already delivered 75 basis points worth of hikes since the start of the year," said Packirisamy.However, she forecasts two more increases, of 25 basis points each, in July and November, amid high inflation, currency weakness and wage cost pressures.The rand is weak and volatile, food prices are edging higher and oil prices are on the rise.These factors threaten to keep inflation elevated outside the 3%-6% target band, which would support another rate hike.Interest rates have been raised at the committee's past three meetings, by 25 basis points in November last year, 50 basis points in January this year and 25 basis points in March.ETM Analytics economist Manisha Morar is among those forecasting a 25-basis-point hike.A further tightening in policy would demonstrate the committee's commitment to restore medium-term inflation expectations, which at this stage were still elevated, said Morar. Committee members clearly hold different views on rate hikes, evident in the split decision at the last meeting, in March  "However, we could see the MPC turn much less hawkish at this meeting, and a further recovery in the rand could see it rethink the need to tighten much further amid weak growth," she said.A weak rand makes the Reserve Bank's job much harder because it fans inflation and necessitates interest rate increases.The extreme rand volatility put the committee in a very difficult position, said Ion de Vleeschauwer, the head of treasury at Bidvest Bank.The rand could find support if the Reserve Bank raised rates by 25 basis points, in line with its main mandate of ensuring price stability and curbing inflation, he said.story_article_right2"The rand could weaken a little bit further if they do not hike, and they can be justified if they do not hike because we have had data showing that unemployment has worsened and the outlook is for weak economic growth."Committee members clearly hold different views on rate hikes, evident in the split decision at the last meeting, in March.Three members supported a rate increase while the other three felt a pause was appropriate.The Reserve Bank has also been concerned about wage increases and their effect on inflation.These concerns imply that it will closely monitor wage negotiations set to start in the mining sector in the second half of the year.This, together with the movement in food and oil prices, will be important for the inflation outlook.Food prices have been increasing mainly due to the severe drought, which has caused significant shortages and necessitated imports.Food inflation has been rising gradually and reached 9.8% year on year in March, from lows of 4.3% year on year in June last year.Oil prices have also moved from their lows of just below $40 a barrel to levels of around $47 a barrel...

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