The benefit for consumers of a drop in the petrol price next month could be cancelled out by the prospect of another interest-rate hike thanks to the weaker rand. But a drop in global oil prices due to slowing demand and a strong dollar may give the Reserve Bank room to delay a bit, especially in light of the struggling domestic economy.The central bank was widely criticised for its pre-emptive hiking of rates at its meeting last month, ahead of a potential rate increase by the US Federal Reserve next month.story_article_left1It was the second rate raise in a year, and increased the pressure on South Africa's sluggish economy.On inflation alone, "... a September hike might be ahead of the curve", said Peter Attard Montalto, the senior emerging markets economist at Japanese investment bank Nomura.The consumer inflation rate for July was reported this week to be 5% year on year - in line with market expectations. The figure for June was 4.7%. The Reserve Bank's target inflation range is between 3% and 6%.Makwe Masilela, an economist at stockbroker BP Bernstein, said: "Even if the rand is flirting with R13/$ levels, low commodity prices, including oil, are trading within a range - not breaking up or down. That itself doesn't threaten our inflation target." Low commodity prices "confirms that global economies are not going anywhere any time soon. There's no demand, and the same holds for our economy."Brent crude prices have plunged 58.5% since a peak of R115.06 in June last year. Over the past month, the fuel has dropped 15.77% . On Friday, the rand was trading at R12.97 to the dollar and R20.29 to the pound.The head of real-time analytics at investment advisor ETM Analytics, Jana van Deventer, said there was "... scope for steeper losses" on Brent crude. Oil prices had collapsed in the final quarter of last year, which helped reduce the pressure on domestic inflation in 2015, mainly via the fuel-price mechanism.story_article_right2Van Deventer said a rout in oil prices last month had failed to entice the Reserve Bank to alter its inflation estimates, because the bank appeared to be looking beyond this, focusing instead on underlying inflation risks."The rand has become a key culprit in this context and the persistent rand weakness observed in recent weeks hints at risks for the Reserve Bank to be forced into more tightening further down the line."She added that "risks to the economy stemming from rand weakness, which essentially warrants more policy tightening, are gradually starting to outweigh risks associated with a Reserve Bank that refrains from hiking interest rates".Against the pound, the rand has slid 11.17% over the past 12 months and 4.26% since July 20. It has fallen 16.63% against the dollar over the past year and is down 3.44% over the past month.The MSCI emerging market equity index, which lost 1.26% on Thursday,is down 23.47% in a year as emerging-market currencies take strain from a slowing Chinese economy and recent yuan devaluation."Whether the Fed decides to hike rates in September, December or early next year is trivial when considering the broader outlook for the rand, which remains bearishly skewed," Van Deventer said.After ending quantitative easing last year, the Fed is expected to raise rates for the first time in nine years on the back of a healthier US economy.story_article_left3Azar Jammine, chief economist at consultancy Econometrix, said the falling oil price was one reason the Reserve Bank might wait until November to raise rates - but "the fact they increased rates in July despite inflation coming in quite low and despite weak economic data, suggests they want to raise interest rates at the moment in order to bring them above [the] inflation [rate]".South Africa's second-quarter gross domestic product figures will be released on Tuesday, with economists expecting the data to show muted growth.Elna Moolman, an economist at Macquarie Securities, said: "We're expecting half a percent of quarter-on-quarter growth. I am a little concerned about some potential downside risk, but I think what's more important is the medium-term outlook - and there we are also concerned about some downside risk. The forecast for this year is about 2% and next year 2.2% and we're more cautious about that."We are not convinced the economy will do 2% growth either this year or next year."Moolman said a combination of factors - including subdued domestic demand, higher inflation, interest-rate hikes and tax increases at the beginning of the year - had increased pressure on consumers. There were also concerns about global growth...