Stock Talk: Generous offer likely to outweigh beery patriotism

04 October 2015 - 02:00 By Ann Crotty

Talk is that AB InBev will make its formal offer for SABMiller by the end of this week and the price is expected to be at least £42 a share. It seems SABMiller's major shareholders, the Santo Domingo family and Altria, are onside or close to agreeing. An offer at £42 (about R880) or above would be just too difficult to turn down. Not even the few South African shareholders with deep emotional ties to South African Breweries will be able to say "no", particularly given the strength of the pound against the rand.At this stage there's little chance of a deal with Heineken being pulled out of the hat. That family-controlled group is very protective of its independence and, as AB InBev is fast learning, everybody has their price, and £42 seems to be about it for SABMiller shareholders.Back in 2008, the board at Anheuser Busch (the AB of AB InBev) was extremely effective in extracting an above-expectation price from InBev; to this end it was not shy about banging the same jingoistic drum (about how big US beer companies should be owned by Americans) that it used less effectively in 2002 after the South African upstart SAB bought control of Miller.No doubt SABMiller shareholders will be hoping that if an offer does materialise, its board will be similarly effective without resorting to jingoism.Of course there's still the matter of the competition authorities and other global regulators. Many in the investment community forget that competition regulators are generally tasked with more than just competition issues; they are required to look at public interest issues, which can mean almost anything. In South Africa, the issues would include a freeze on retrenchments, a continued JSE listing and protected BEE status. So, even if an offer is forthcoming this week, this deal is far from done.story_article_left1Tiger's departing CEOWORD is the Tiger board is in no great rush to find a replacement for its departing CEO, Peter Matlare, who announced recently that he was stepping down at the end of December. Matlare has been at the helm for seven years, taking over the slot from Nick Dennis ,who resigned in the wake of the high-profile battle with competition authorities over anti-competitive shenanigans in the bread and flour markets.The seven years were not a great time for a food group that once dominated the South African market. It poured a fortune into ill-considered acquisitions outside South Africa and took its eye off the ball back home. The acquisitions also appear to have been poorly implemented and badly managed. The Dangote deal in Nigeria was the stand-out failure but difficulties have emerged with Tiger's Kenyan acquisition.And last year there was the brand-damaging recall of a range of Tastic Simply Delicious sauces and ready-to-eat rices after some of the products tested positive for traces of banned carcinogenic colourants. This really smacks of management sourcing cheaply to save a few rands.Meanwhile, previously little-known players have been aggressive in taking advantage of Tiger's mounting woes and have taken market share in several key areas. Pioneer shareholders have done particularly well from the prolonged poor management at Tiger.It's puzzling that the board allowed the situation to continue for so long; rumour has it that action was taken only after a Stellenbosch-based shareholder became particularly agitated.Those who've known Tiger well over the years are adamant the problems didn't start with Matlare (Dennis did not leave a happy ship) but they were certainly aggravated and became horribly apparent under his watch...

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