Challenges for Africa as China regains its poise

04 October 2015 - 02:00 By Martyn Davies

If one is to believe recent reports, the Chinese economy is about to suffer a hard landing. This view is downright incorrect. The days of double-digit growth in China are clearly over, but the economy is now rebalancing from one driven by overinvestment to a consumer- and services-driven economy. Traditionally, the government has skewed its spending to infrastructure rather than social welfare. This isbeginning to change. As China's commodity-intensive growth model subsides, the implications for resource-rich Africa are being felt dramatically and will continue to be for the long term.There are three overarching economic policy priorities the Chinese government is trying to manage at the moment: growth; deleveraging; and rebalancing the economy.In fact, I would argue that the rout in the commodities market and slowdown of resource-driven economies is perhaps more of a supply-side problem than one on the demand - or Chinese - side.story_article_left1At the World Economic Forum meeting in Dalian, China, three weeks ago, Premier Li Keqiang said commodity imports had not declined this year. The global commodity market is oversupplied, so panic over China's growth outlook is exaggerated.To put things in perspective, China's growth remains robust at around 6%. In 2008, the year of the Western financial crisis, China's GDP stood at $4.55-trillion and growth was at 9.64%. At this growth rate and size, China added about $438-billion to its economy that year. But its economy has more than doubled in size since 2008 - due to the power of compound growth - and now stands at about $11-trillion.At this growth rate, China will add roughly $660-billion to its domestic economy this year. And size is more important than speed. In the first half of 2015, China accounted for a significant 30% of global growth.Despite the bursting of China's stock market bubble - the market has always been divorced from the real growth story anyway - its economic fundamentals remain pretty much intact. The stock market is the equivalent to 3% of GDP - a small number. This is a confidence issue, rather than one of economic impact.Stock market volatility is due to governance (of particular concern in state- or partially state-owned companies), the market's sensitivity to political sentiment, clumsy regulatory measures and an immature investor base. China's stock market is dominated by retail rather than institutional investors, accounting for 85% of total trades (and there are about 200 million of them.) And more are piling in. CNBC reported in July that more than 30 million new trading accounts were added in the first five months of 2015, three times as many as in 2014. So China's stock market has a baked-in volatility. It will take a long while until the market and the investor base mature.story_article_right2According to Xu Shaoshi, the chairman of China's planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, the biggest problem facing the Chinese economy is its "industrial overcapacity". And this overcapacity is being exported - the impact on South Africa's steel sector is all too apparent. It will take six to eight years before this excess capacity is reduced through consolidation in the marketplace.Of China's 800-plus steel manufacturing firms, about 10% account for 90% of production. This is the result of the state's clumsy economic interventions.Unsustainable financing and artificial stimulus for China's industrial sector - mostly populated by state-owned firms - have distorted the market and created so-called "zombie" companies (as they were recently labelled in The New York Times). The cost of state intervention in China is often borne by other countries, whose manufacturing sectors are being destroyed by "mispriced" product exported from China.Chinese policymakers will find it increasingly difficult to manage their rapidly marketising economy and globalising capital markets. Balancing the forces of protection, state ownership, market reform and productivity will be incredibly difficult for Beijing, if not impossible.Africa's China-enabled "golden growth decade" has passed.As China rebalances, so must Africa. A new growth model is required - and soon.Is China's change cyclical or structural? It is both. But it is important to realise that there will never be another China: the disruptive and enabling impact it has had on commodities markets and resource-driven economies will not be repeated.Davies is MD of emerging markets and Africa at Deloitte-Frontier Advisory..

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