Let's hope ANC puts country before party

10 April 2016 - 02:00 By Ron Derby

While the ruling party closes ranks and decides its fate and that of the country's president, its members should consider the economic state of those they are leaving outside their decision-making. A bad decision - and I am not one to prescribe - will fuel a political revolt sweeping across the country.It's no longer the lowest rung of society feeling the pinch of a deindustrialising economy. Banks and retailers - either through the pressure from disruptive technologies or the age-old enemy of rising costs - are also looking to reduce their workforces.Blue-, white- and pink-collar workers are being hurt by the same slowdown and from the deleveraging that has been forced upon them as credit lines get stricter.story_article_left1Take away credit and people feel poor, Ohio State University economics professor Lucia Dunn was quoted as saying in a recent Bloomberg report. The US response to the post-2008 world, where credit has been more difficult to get, has seen the rise of the politics of Donald Trump.In South Africa, the tightening of the screws started with Marikana, almost four years ago. When that tragedy struck, the idea that miners had been driven to desperation by their indebtedness, over and above their unhappiness with the then London-based management, was seen as a ludicrous assumption.But over the course of time the pressures faced by the miners became evident: they were supporting distant families in the country's poorer geographies and in some cases second families closer to their places of employ.The pressures played out in the collapse of the Leon Kirkinis-led African Bankas concern over unsecured lending was fully realised a few years later.These pressures never resided solely in the world of the blue-collar worker. It was inevitable that they would spread to other segments of society the longer that growth faltered.Now, the bulk of employed South Africans are in as pressured a position as miners. And while they may not be lining up behind Joseph Mathunjwa, they are looking to other champions such as Julius Malema's EFF.The continued fall in confidence levels was further illustrated this week by the decline in new vehicle sales.Last year, sales declined by 4.1%; this year they are expected to fall by 10%.story_article_right2Our debt to disposable income ratio is at 77.8%, suggesting limited scope to accumulate more debt for consumption.Combined with the low growth rate and rising interest rates, banks and other lenders have tightened lending criteria.The angst that has taken hold of the country isn't just a middle-class tantrum, including some urban and undisciplined black professionals. For a consumption-driven economy, feeling poor is bad economically and terminal politically.Students are protesting over the price of education because credit lines for their parents have dried up. The biggest boast of the earlier incarnation of African Bank was that its clients used the credit offered to pay for schooling and home extensions, not for Louis Vuitton scarves.It's in such a climate that the ruling party goes about its business of making a decision about the future of its president. What may prove healthy for the party may not necessarily prove such for the state and its long-term prospects.It may instead deliver the country into the hands of even more radical elements than the actors before us.E-mail derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za or find him on twitter @ronderby..

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