Missing component to digital revolution

15 May 2016 - 02:00 By Thabi Leoka

Is Africa ready for the fourth revolution, or are we getting ahead of ourselves? The first revolution used water and steam power to mechanise production, the second used electric power to create mass production and the third used electronics and information technology to automate production. The fourth industrial revolution is the digital revolution, which has been occurring since the middle of the past century.As an economics student, I enjoyed studying the Rostovian stages theory. Rostow's inevitable path of unidirectional growth consisted of five stages: traditional society; the preconditions for takeoff; takeoff; the drive to maturity; and the age of mass consumption. Most developing countries are in the first two stages, and most developed countries are in the last two.The most important stage was "takeoff" - the launch pad of accelerated growth. Takeoff required a rise in the rate of productive investment from, say, 5% to over 10% of national income.story_article_left1It also required the development of at least one substantial manufacturing sector , with high growth and the quick emergence of a political, social and institutional framework.This is the stage at which there is an increase in urbanisation, industrialisation proceeds and technological breakthrough occurs.Rostow's theory fits well in the developed world, but applying it in the African or even just the South African context has proved difficult. Development in a country such as South Africa doesn't neatly follow Rostow's stages. Such a country would fit into all stages but show predominant characteristics of the third stage rather than the first.So when I consider this fourth industrial revolution with all its hi-tech solutions that will link people across countries and continents and solve everyday problems, I'm reminded of the stages of development that African countries are experiencing and the risk of adopting something before the foundations have been set.Can we afford to have discussions about cars that drive themselves and machines that will take over manufacturing when many of our countries have yet to roll out roads to link one village to another? Only 40% of Africans have a reliable energy supply, and 20% have internet access.Research shows that by 2050, five million jobs will be lost globally to technology.story_article_right2Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology argue that digital innovations contribute to the stagnation of average incomes in the US and the disappearance of the middle class. That's because while digital technologies help economies to grow faster, not everyone benefits equally.According to a World Economic Forum document, the greatest beneficiaries of innovation tend to be the providers of intellectual and physical capital - innovators, shareholders and investors, which explains the rising gap between those dependent on capital versus labour.Africa has one of the world's youngest populations. Growth through innovation and technology should be driven by Africa's youth and enabled by its leaders.We need to see sustained economic development, inclusive growth and political stability in order to have an African digital revolution.Instead of being divisive, the 55% of those who make up Africa's informal sector should be part of the IT revolution that will help eradicate inefficiency in sectors such as trade, transport, agriculture, energy and healthcare.Leoka is an economist at Argon Asset Management..

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