Know Africa before plunging in

10 July 2016 - 02:00 By St John Bungey

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to operating and managing money successfully on the African continent, but there are certain key ingredients to getting it right.Respect for local knowledge, understanding the local environment and partnering with the right people are crucial elements.Current conversations at African conferences are not dissimilar to discussions at China-focused gatherings in the early 2000s. For Africa and China (then and now), despite the minority of naysayers, most commentators agree there is tangible growth, underpinned by demographic change and an emerging middle class. But the question remains: how can one harness and translate that economic growth into returns?If we liken the current African narrative to that of China in the early 2000s, the parallels are unmistakeable. Despite the "African growth story" cliché and recent commodity headwinds, there is much to suggest that sub-Saharan Africa offers a similar, albeit smaller, mix of ingredients to that which drove China through its period of outperformance.The 4% to 5% growth in GDP expected in 2015-6 represents a healthy premium to expected world growth, considering that $11.7-trillion (about R172-trillion) of the world's sovereign debt is at negative yields.Similarly, the demographics favour growth. Sub-Saharan Africa hosts a marketplace of more than one billion people, which is expected to double by 2050. Understandably, international investors have been grappling with the same dilemma: how to capitalise on this GDP uplift and convert it into returns.Ten years ago, it was impossible for any major international business to ignore China in its strategic plans. Yet it is estimated that half of the foreign entrants to China failed in their first two years of operation. In contrast to the success of Ikea, P&G, BMW and Starbucks, there were the withdrawals of the likes of Mattel, BestBuy, Tesco and eBay.What lessons can we extract?South African firms, by virtue of proximity, have been early entrants into the rest of the continent. More recently, international firms have used South Africa as a springboard for their African ambitions.While we are too early in the cycle for there to be a clear scorecard, Shoprite and Standard Bank stand out as success stories.With the thirst for Africa initially drawing in bigger brands such as the recently tainted darling MTN, we have also seen some notable retreats, such as Tiger Brands' failed $200-million acquisition of Dangote Flour Mills and Telkom's $280-million stake in Nigerian telecoms agency Multi-Links, which had a R1-billion loss.What is striking is how common the themes are that seem to differentiate the winners and losers, in both China and Africa, despite the 10-year gap.Industry peers have found, from their research, that commonly perceived issues such as government control, local laws and corruption are not the major reasons behind most foreign failures. Often, foreign businesses have stumbled because of a lack of understanding of local culture, social norms and, most importantly, consumer preferences.The strategies that have worked elsewhere have failed dismally in Africa because investors failed to recognise that Africa has a very different landscape and frame of reference to the rest of the world.Not being attuned to the consumer, or neglecting to tailor strategies, could mean that businesses are overlooking valuable segments of the market.Examples of this are that they underestimated local competition and performed insufficient, or improper market research, or entered the market without doing proper research and did not fully understand the dynamics of that market.A synopsis of these common guidelines, when advising on investment strategy, would read something like this:Time on the ground is non-negotiable.The biggest failures on both continents were those who thought they could fly in and fly out and act purely as providers of capital. Commitment to an investment through the cycle is essential;Understand what you are buying or investing in.Opportunities are real, but investors who profit most will be those who take the time to engage, do research and form lasting relationships; andDon't try and replicate what you do at home. Each region and market has subtleties and cultural nuances. Listen, learn, respect local knowledge and be flexible in your approach.To capture the successful formula for operating and managing money on the African continent, we approach it through the lens of knowledge, partnership and respect.As Africans we have a resourcefulness that comes from years of operating under difficult circumstances with what were, historically, few resources. Take the time to find the right partners.The best risk mitigants when investing in Africa are relationships, knowledge and understanding.Bungey is CEO for Sanlam's Africa Investments..

There’s never been a more important time to support independent media.

From World War 1 to present-day cosmopolitan South Africa and beyond, the Sunday Times has been a pillar in covering the stories that matter to you.

For just R80 you can become a premium member (digital access) and support a publication that has played an important political and social role in South Africa for over a century of Sundays. You can cancel anytime.

Already subscribed? Sign in below.



Questions or problems? Email helpdesk@timeslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00.