A way to add growth to our big fat zero

24 July 2016 - 02:00 By Andile Khumalo

We were still reeling from the IMF's prediction that South Africa's growth for 2016 would be a meagre 0.1% when Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago snatched away even that prospect, telling the nation this week that the central bank's assessment is zero growth for the current year.

Yes, you and I will sweat and toil hard for the balance of the year, trying to be productive and build the economy, but all we will achieve is zero.Last year, GDP growth came in at 1.3%, the lowest since the global financial crisis and below most emerging market economies and commodity producers.According to StatsSA, a sharp contraction in mining tipped economic growth into negative territory in the first quarter of 2016, with GDP shrinking 1.2% quarter on quarter, while year-on-year growth for the same quarter was -0.2%.story_article_left1In this context, it is tough to see how we will achieve a black number for second-quarter growth. Despite reassurances from politicians and some economists that our economy is not in a recession, everything around us suggests we are in the middle of one.What is probably more distressing than current-year growth is the GDP forecast for outer years."The domestic economic growth outlook remains extremely challenging, following the contraction in GDP in the first quarter of this year," says the Reserve Bank."Although this is anticipated to have been the low point of the cycle, the recovery is expected to be weak. The bank's latest forecast is for 0% growth in 2016, compared with 0.6% previously. Growth rates of 1.1% and 1.5% are forecast for the next two years."Clearly, we need a solution to this slowdown - and we need one fast.So what can we do to reignite our economy?We clearly can't depend much on consumption, at least not private consumption, as the South African consumer has "too much month at the end of the money" to spend any more.Thanks to double-digit food inflation driven by the harshest drought in decades, the ends are just not meeting and, apparently, it's not likely to get much better. The Reserve Bank "expects food price inflation to peak at 12.6% during the final quarter of this year".So there goes consumer spending.What about government spending? Well, there is the small matter of local government elections - always the most contested elections on our political calendar.block_quotes_start Policymakers need to come up with quick wins to contain the situation, but, equally, they need to implement strategies to sustain the recovery block_quotes_endThe mood that tends to overwhelm local government officials during elections is one of "let's wait and see". They worry that pursuing projects that were dear to their outgoing political leaders could put them out of favour with their incoming leadership.So, at least for the balance of the year, I am not too bullish on state spend, at least not at local government level.What about private sector investment? Well, investors unemotionally deploy their capital where they believe they will get the best returns. Our economy is at zero for 2016, and not forecast to grow much until 2018.Despite the constant reassurance from climatologists that the rains are coming, we are still grappling with a drought whose effects we are probably going to feel long after it is gone. The manufacturing industry is on its knees, and inflation is much higher than we'd like.story_article_right2For these reasons and more, I don't think we are top of the pile when it comes to the most attractive investment destinations right now.So, there goes private sector investment. Except for one thing.If GDP is a measure of goods and services produced in a country, one way to increase GDP would be to deliberately support those who create these goods and services, day in and day out: entrepreneurs.I do not understand why South Africa still does not have a well-oiled entrepreneurship ecosystem that ensures that the best ideas get the best support at all times.I appreciate that our policymakers have many priorities to juggle, especially in difficult times like these. They need to come up with quick wins to contain the situation, but, equally, they need to implement strategies to sustain the recovery.Clear and unequivocal policy, not hundreds of unco-ordinated initiatives, on how South Africa should better support entrepreneurs is the elephant in the room. Let's stop pretending we don't see it.Khumalo is chief investment officer of MSG Afrika Group and presents "Power Business" on Power98.7 at 5pm, Monday to Thursday..

There’s never been a more important time to support independent media.

From World War 1 to present-day cosmopolitan South Africa and beyond, the Sunday Times has been a pillar in covering the stories that matter to you.

For just R80 you can become a premium member (digital access) and support a publication that has played an important political and social role in South Africa for over a century of Sundays. You can cancel anytime.

Already subscribed? Sign in below.



Questions or problems? Email helpdesk@timeslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00.