We simply can't afford Jacob Zuma's presidency

28 August 2016 - 02:02 By RON DERBY

When we look back on President Jacob Zuma's administration we'll have much to lament: Nkandla, factionalism, the cult of personality, the rise of a Gupta dynasty and the collapse of governance at state-owned enterprises. Tragically, the demon of tribalism has also been unleashed. The economic cost of his presidency is a legacy that will stay with us for decades .When Zuma delivered his inaugural address as president on May 9 2009 , the rand traded at about R8.27 to the dollar. Today, it trades above R14. To be sure, emerging market currencies across the board have fallen out of favour, but the ongoing political circus around our president has been a dead weight on the rand.Turkey, on the doorstep of a violently imploding Middle East, and fresh from a failed coup, has seen its currency fare worse. So, too, has the rouble, with Russia once again something of a pariah since annexing Crimea.This is the league we find ourselves in. Even Brazil, mired in its worst recession in a century and fighting a monstrous corruption scandal, has done better.story_article_left1Zuma took the reins more than seven years ago, just as the country headed into its first recession in 17 years amid the aftershocks of a global credit crisis, triggered by the meltdown of the US housing market. But by the end of 2009, the economy had started a tentative recovery.The economy's inherent resilience gave the Reserve Bank the space to cut rates to stimulate growth. By July 2012, the bank had reduced borrowing costs to a record low of 5%. Retailers, property developers and lenders, among others, benefited from access to cheap credit, and we started to erode the unforgivably high jobless numbers.By its prudent management of the fiscus, the National Treasury could follow a countercyclical fiscal path, meaning the ability to spend in an economic downturn. Heading into the 2010 World Cup, it used that flexibility to spend on all manner of infrastructure, with lasting benefits for the country.Much of this increased spending was also channelled to a rapidly growing public sector wage bill and social welfare grants, picking up the slack created by the mining and construction sectors that had started (and continue) to contract. The prudence of the government's financial cluster was aided further by China's continued expansion, which created a further tailwind for much of the first half of the Zuma presidency.But in August 2012, the upbeat narrative around the South African economy changed suddenly. This shift was perhaps best captured by the Marikana tragedy. In retrospect, it was perhaps prescient that the Reserve Bank cut rates for the last time only a month before.In the intervening four years, the administration has been unable to steady the ship. Senior leaders in the party and the government have, instead, been preoccupied with internal bickering, scandal and securing their own salvation amid growing disquiet among the party faithful and the populace at large.block_quotes_start The pockets of a card-carrying member of the federation and their pensions at the start of the Zuma years were much fatter than they are today block_quotes_endThat means the president and those in his inner circle haven't focused on the structural reforms needed to get the economy back on track. Instead, they have left a well-crafted National Development Plan gathering dust and the ranks of the jobless swelling.Looking back, it's hard to see the years since Marikana as anything but a marker for our economic descent. Instead of inspiring great leaders to galvanise a nation to remedy its economic malaise and structural inequity, the hardships have been accompanied by the tawdry tale of one man's economic and political survival.So, while we skirt the recessionary abyss, looking desperately for a growth lifeline, the most recent inflation data released by Stats South Africa on Wednesday signalled that we might at the very least escape another rate hike this year. That same afternoon, the hounds were let loose on the Treasury's political head. The rand slumped, almost guaranteeing a growth-killing rate hike sooner rather than later. And all that in one afternoon.How many more such afternoons can the country take, or as we have come to expect, late-evening memos?Now, I know currency movements are something of a foreign concept in the day-to-day lives of South Africans. To get to a truer cost of the Zuma years, I'd have to look at the continuing disintegration of once proud labour federation Cosatu.story_article_right2The pockets of a card-carrying member of the federation and their pensions at the start of the Zuma years were much fatter than they are today. No wonder the National Union Mineworkers is no longer the powerhouse it was, and that the second-biggest union, the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa, has walked away. This week, the Food and Allied Workers Union joined its camp.The 2007 Polokwane movement was supposed to be a leftist march, a break with former president Thabo Mbeki's "class project". There's been little or no victory for the workers.In mining, where the biggest bloodbath in job shedding has occurred, it is the interests of the Gupta family that have been served best. As long as their interests have remained intact, miners such as Anglo American have quietly gone about their business of divesting; there's no other word for it.Uncertainty has left mining houses with no licence from shareholders to reinvest. And while one may smile at the prospect of the upturn in commodity markets there will be, South Africa Inc will once again be behind the investment curve.The economic cost of a continued rule by this collective led by Zuma can no longer be afforded.E-mail derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za or find him on Twitter @ronderby..

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