Instead of growth, we have rising anger

25 September 2016 - 02:02 By RON DERBY

While students protested over fees this week, the Reserve Bank governor was in Pretoria revising our growth target higher, to a whopping 0.4%, from a previous forecast of zero. That's the grim position South Africa Inc is in. Looking at those protests, I resign myself to the ugly truth that we simply won't be able to harness the demographic advantage that the country and the continent have over developed climes and some of the big guns in Asia such as China.The growth targets of Lesetja Kganyago and his team are something that we've become quite accustomed to for Europe, which hasn't quite recovered from 2008 and the sovereign debt crisis some three years later.Muddying Europe's growth prospects further is the fact that its population is ageing rapidly.story_article_left1It's rather silly that politicians such as Marine Le Pen want to raise obstacles against immigrants instead of welcoming them, which would benefit the continent's long-term health.Donald Trump is waging a similar campaign, choosing not to acknowledge how the US benefits from its proximity to cheap labour in nearby countries.South Africa has the advantage of a young population. But we have to ask ourselves whether we'll be able to harness this dividend, like some Asian nations such as South Korea, or whether we will follow the path of failed states such as Pakistan, where the demographic has become a curse.The options are clear. Will South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa see the worsening of ills such as terrorism in northern Nigeria, or will the continent be a growth node that attracts investment, ultimately uplifting its people?We obviously are not exploiting the population dividend, if you compare the miserly growth rates we are targeting with population growth of 1.7%. As a Business Day editorial said this week, South Africans, on average, are getting poorer.This past week I watched the student protests - which I feel go far beyond the issue of fees and point to overall socioeconomic conditions - and wondered if we will be able to reap much benefit from the demographic transition.If the governing party doesn't realise that the struggle for equality isn't being waged in the country's hinterland but in its cities, then it's a test that it will fail.The young are streaming into urban centres. It's a generation that can either be occupied by schooling or a job.story_article_right2But under such a growth environment - which is not entirely the government's fault - and with a private sector whose embrace of information technology has reduced demand for labour, providing jobs is proving difficult.Making sure kids get educations, especially at tertiary level, is something policymakers should be most concerned with. It's also in their own selfish interests.Countries such as Pakistan are the outliers of the Asian demographic transition.Europe and North America had their transitions following the two world wars.Asia and South America's began around the same time in the '70s.Compared to Latin America, Asia had more favourable outcomes and that's because of a strong focus on education, health and physical capital, according to the IMF.While we can argue over the methods of the student protesters, the demonstrations are a blip on the radar that could be signalling that we've hit an iceberg. I definitely believe it.E-mail derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za or find him on Twitter @ronderby..

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