Freefall to oblivion as Zuma goes for broke

With apologies to Oscar Wilde: "To lose one finance minister, Mr Zuma, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness; but to lose three, sir, appears deliberate."

" Wilde's original line is from the Victorian farce The Importance of Being Earnest, and South Africa itself descended into farce this week. But the assault on Pravin Gordhan and the National Treasury is no laughing matter.

South Africa may be on the brink of shedding its third finance minister in under a year. If it happens, all bets on the economy are off. It will nullify last month's international investor PR offensive and send a clear signal to ratings agencies that their concerns have been ignored.

It would be an extraordinary show of political and economic brinkmanship and will make the December 2015 sacking of Nhlanhla Nene look like a practice run.

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While the national director of public prosecutions, Shaun Abrahams, appeared on Wednesday to open the door to a sober discussion about the charges, whatever happens now, any semblance of trust rebuilt since December has been smashed domestically and internationally.

Who would ever believe Gordhan's assertions of political stability after the events of this week? There is just too much outside of his control.

When foreign investors packed the room to hear from the South African delegation in New York earlier this month, it was seen by participants as a sign of confidence.

In reality, investors smelt blood in the water and came to see if the promises peddled by South Africa Inc of an imminent turnaround in fortunes were based on fact or wishful thinking. The events of the past week will reinforce the opinion that the latter is more likely.

The only time there is standing room only at corporate announcements is if the news is incredibly good or incredibly bad. The same is true of politics, and right now the news is not incredibly good. Confidence, like reputation, is a fragile construct. Tinker with either, and it's practically impossible to restore.

President Jacob Zuma is going for broke. That much is clear. The Nene sacking was clumsy, as was the appointment of Des van Rooyen.

Gordhan has been vulnerable since he was crowbarred back into the job at the behest of senior ANC and business figures some 300 days ago. Zuma didn't want him. He would never have sent him to the local government portfolio at the end of his first term if he had.

Zuma's problem is that he needs a smoking gun to have arguable legitimacy to suspend or sack him.

Gordhan has a reputation as a tough customer. He understands economics and knows that allowing a feeding frenzy with the national credit card would have long-term destructive consequences.

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If Gordhan does go under duress, there will be no coming back from a December downgrade. And worse. It would push up the cost of borrowing, further undermine business confidence, drive the currency weaker, raise inflationary pressures, and lead, ultimately, to a resumption of rate hikes that would push the country into recession.

The effect on ordinary South Africans would be catastrophic.

There is no doubt the president's aides are cautioning him about the risk he is taking. Certainly, business leaders will be working to ensure that he grasps the magnitude of the political gameplay, and that the ANC understands the consequences if it fails to exert authority over Zuma.

The tide is turning. David Makhura, the respected Gauteng premier, expressed his support for the finance minister, as did ANC chief whip Jackson Mthembu.

The case against Gordhan, despite angry denials by the National Prosecuting Authority, smacks of selective prosecution.

A cursory study of public sector employment practices would turn up countless similar examples of public sector workers taking early retirement and being rehired on contracts.

The world is watching closely.

Whitfield is a financial journalist, broadcaster and public speaker on the political economy