Is South Africa fast approaching a time that scholars will come to describe as belonging to a "banana republic"? It's just one of the questions we have to bat off as we watch the drama unfold in the political theatre. There's so much to suggest that maybe we are heading into a dire state from which it will be nearly impossible to return. It is all accompanied by a sluggish economy that doesn't have the green shoots to promise an imminent turnaround.But banana republic is not an apt description.The classic definition is of a small country that economically depends on a single export, is politically unstable and dominated by foreign interests, and is led by a dictator or a military ruler.There's a lot in there that doesn't fit our narrative. Our institutions are working well, so the last part is certainly not a possibility, in the short to medium term at least.story_article_left1Bananas aren't the only product we export - there is still a lot to be said about the diversity of the local economy.But we do share one similarity with a banana republic - political instability.Plead for just one moment in which everything can settle, and you are likely to be disappointed. As I put this column to bed, there is speculation that the medium- term budget this week will be delivered by a new minister.In normal times, I would brush this off as complete madness ahead of a potential downgrade to junk status. But a recall, sadly and even at this last minute, is a distinct possibility given the unpopularity of the minister in certain desperate yet powerful quarters.South African politics has been following the well-known trading adage that warns investors to sell in May, ahead of the northern hemisphere's summer and spring. It used to serve as a reminder that in the holiday season, equity markets generally cool as the financial centres of New York and London go on autopilot. In this day and age, it's not really applicable anymore.Our politics, though, follow this adage to a T. Even if the medium-term budget was to go ahead with its current political principal in the National Treasury, we still have another eight weeks to bite our nails before South Africa logs off around December 16.There's much to keep us in suspense.There's this lingering sense that something massive is going to happen, which will shake up the country even more than the events of recent times.Cabinet reshuffles, ratings decisions by the world's big three agencies - Moody's, S&P and Fitch.story_article_right2So yes, on at least one of the requirements to fit the classic definition of a banana republic, on the political instability front, we are well ahead.Here's an offshoot of this political theatre, if it plays out as we all dread: the economic ramifications in the years to come will reach a point where the fate of everything in South Africa is in the hands of the owners of our debt.A slide into junk status will push up the cost of financing state debt, squeezing an already tight purse. The longer the economy remains stagnant, the more those costs will rise.And the more the state has to preoccupy itself with financing its debt obligations, the more dependent it becomes on the holders of this debt, which will be predominantly foreign.Their terms will dictate just how much the state would be able to spend on everything, from education to healthcare.And when a state can't pursue what's in the best interests of its people because of debt obligations, it's in banana- republic territory.E-mail derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za or find him on Twitter @ronderby..