One man could have calmed Davos doubts

After the pleasantries that follow any meeting with a head of state, I could have placed a bet that the first thing any emerging-market investor would have liked to ask President Jacob Zuma at this year's World Economic Forum meeting in Davos was whether his relations with his finance minister had improved.

Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately for No1, it's a question that investors are now going to have to put to his deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa.

But as we all know, ministers serve at the pleasure of the president. And try as Ramaphosa might to reassure the investment community that the country will remain under sound and - more important - stable management, his words won't carry as much weight as the president's.

It's a pity the large delegation of Team SA to the Swiss Alps this week won't be led by Zuma.

On the face of it, the decision may have saved the president from making any promises which, in an ANC election year, he might not be able to keep.

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But let's just imagine that the plan for a reshuffle affecting the finance minister was still very much on the cards - not attending is also a lost opportunity to alert investors to possible changes in the cabinet in the months to come.

A whisper in the right ear would naturally lead to a market rumour and in turn it would be priced into the rand. It would only serve to dampen the shock of it all, should Zuma indeed wake up one autumn day with the sudden urge to spice up his cabinet meetings with a couple of new faces.

If he had put it out to the market that former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene was on his way out, December of 2015 would have been a lot less stressful for him. And, in fact, last year might not have been a year in which we lurched from political crisis to crisis.

By not leading the delegation to Davos, the president leaves the South African investment story encased in political risk. This is because no one outside his immediate circle (who knows who resides there) knows what his next step is.

Placed before an audience of investors looking for investment bets outside the US and the volatility that is sure to come from a Donald Trump presidency, Zuma had a chance to ease concerns around political risk.

Now it's up to the delegation to do a job that is near impossible, given that the central player in recent years involving the woes of the South African economic story - rightly or wrongly - is Zuma.

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On paper, South Africa has a much better story to tell the world this year than in years past. That's especially true if one considers emerging-market peers such as Brazil, Turkey and Russia.

While Trump may be taking over a rather robust US economy, his promises of doubling growth are unlikely to materialise.

And after a record period of expansion in the US, there's an increasing likelihood that, within his four-year term, the world's biggest economy could head into a recession. It's the law of averages.

And just how the continued talks about Brexit will play out is anyone's guess.

Against this backdrop, the South African political story is rather calm. Finally, in the ruling party's elective year, the candidates to replace Zuma are going to have to show their faces as the year progresses, putting an end to much of the uncertainty that has dented confidence levels.

The only man who can sell this story to an investor audience that embraces New York, London and Hong Kong is the president, and he, unfortunately, is occupied.

E-mail derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za or find him on Twitter @ronderby