Will Vavi's march herald a new era of politics?

05 July 2015 - 02:02 By Mark Gevisser

In the past few weeks, the national political debate in South Africa has become so inflamed that it often seems as if there is only one solution: the excision of President Jacob Zuma from office. But such words themselves are inflammatory, given the ANC's neuralgia when it comes to criticism of its leader. And so we find ourselves in the throes of a toxic national public discourse that is infecting us all.story_article_left1Is there a way out? Is there going to be, any time soon, a #ZumaMustFall movement that might have the energy of the #RhodesMustFall action at the University of Cape Town earlier this year?When Zwelinzima Vavi leads what he hopes will be 100000 people on marches against corruption to the Union Buildings and parliament on August 19, will he be activating a new era of politics? Or will his march simply speed up the toxic cycle?The strongest mass disapproval of Zuma, to date, took place at the FNB Stadium in December 2013, during the Nelson Mandela memorial. Thousands of ordinary people booed Zuma, spontaneously. How many of these would move themselves out of anonymity and actually join a march, or take part in such a movement?We are not, of course, headed for Kiev's Maidan, or for Cairo's Tahrir Square: there is neither a foreign colonial power nor an autocracy to resist.Perhaps the August 19 marches will carry resonances of the Taksim Square occupation in Istanbul in 2013, which became a national protest against the increasing autocracy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan remained popular, but a broad-based dissident movement was forged and by last month, two years later, he had lost his majority.block_quotes_start Thousands of ordinary people booed Zuma, spontaneously. How many of them would actually join a march? block_quotes_endThere are three ways South Africans seem to be voicing their discontent with Zuma and his leadership of the country. The first is through elected representatives in parliament, who are either becoming dangerously disruptive, as in the case of the EFF, or unbearably shrill (DA).The second is through the media, where the commentariat, black and white, is so perpetually outraged by Zuma's behaviour that this outrage risks becoming static interference, as easy to switch off as one does a radio station.No disrespect to the brilliant Zapiro, but after you've seen Zuma with a shower on his head so many times, you stop asking yourself why there's a shower on his head in the first place.The third form of dissent is more difficult to grasp, as it is often not directed at Zuma himself, and takes the form of frustration with the slow process of change. Into this category we can put the 2012 Marikana strike itself - and, possibly, the recent wave of murderous, xenophobic violence.The episodic spasms of service-delivery protest are also expressions of this frustration, but they are localised by nature, and have not grown into the kind of national protest that was once predicted.story_article_right2In response, the ANC trumpets its 62% victory at the polls last year as proof that the silent majority is happy with Zuma's performance. This confidence will be tested during next year's local government elections, but even if - as polls suggest - the ANC takes a drubbing in the metropolitan areas, it is unlikely that the ruling party's overall power will be diminished in any significant way.Notwithstanding the cyclical paroxysms that the SACP goes through about its participation in the ruling alliance, working to shift Zuma from "within" the party is bearing no fruit either.With his securocratic skills, the Putinesque Zuma has managed to clamp down on internal dissent even more vigorously than his predecessor: the sole brave exception is the Gauteng leadership of the party, and particularly Paul Mashatile, who made it clear that the report of the police minister, Nathi Nhleko, on Nkandla was not ANC policy.Given this context, the August 19 marches provide the most interesting possibility for shifting things. They show signs of a broadening base: they are supported by 29 organisations, including non-governmental organisations such as Section27, the unions Solidarity and the National Union of Metalworkers, and the new United Front set up by Numsa in an echo of the United Democratic Front.Vavi initiated the process with a tweet calling on people to march to the Union Buildings in support of the public protector, Thuli Madonsela.Vavi has made it clear that his prime target is the South African president himself, but he has tried to finesse the issue by saying: "We do not want to present it as anti-ANC or anti-government. If the ANC decides to present itself as opponents of the campaign, then the march will be anti-them."In response, commentator Ranjeni Munusamy - an indefatigable critic of the Zuma presidency - has urged march organisers to keep their eyes on the prize: corruption. Any overt attack on Zuma, she writes, will be seen as a proxy campaign for regime change: "another campaign for another day".block_quotes_start Vavi has made it clear his prime target is the president himself, but he has tried to finesse the issue block_quotes_endMunusamy's cautionary note points to the power of the ANC trump card. While the Mbeki-ites spun any critique of the then president as "counter-revolutionary", the Zuma-ites are less ideological and more effective: anyone who wants their man to fall is, quite simply, anti-democratic.But the ANC's triumphalist majoritarianism misunderstands democratic process: our democracy gives us many ways to register our dissent with those who govern us, including public peaceful protest.I do not know whether it is possible to play the ball of corruption and not the man who is running with it. One way or another, though, we need to look for ways out of the political deadlock in which we find ourselves.So toxic has the national public discourse become that it risks, otherwise, the worst possible outcome: an alienated and disengaged population that stops even thinking about holding the government to account.Gevisser's latest book is Lost and Found in Johannesburg, A Memoir..

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