Every respectable political commentator in South Africa should be talking today about the merits of Julius Malema's war on the Gupta family's toxic "business" and media empire. I have my own doubts about whether anything they do or own is legitimate. But once you decide that, say, one newspaper is illegitimate, for whatever reason, where does it stop?Julius, though, has once again changed our political discourse and it is about time Jacob Zuma's oily ties with the Guptas were on the table.story_article_left1But how does all this affect our politics? I'm sure the Guptas played a hand in Zuma's decision to offer to pay towards Nkandla.They need him politically fit for purpose - their purpose, that is, and they could stump up R20-million for him in a heartbeat.But as Zuma struggles, something else is going on.Why would Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma tell journalists she hasn't made up her mind yet about whether to run for a second term as head of the AU Commission, as she did during the AU summit last week?Nkosazana wants to stay at the AU as much as I want to swim the Arctic Ocean.But where her return to South African politics as her former husband's chosen successor was once a given, something has happened. It isn't off, but it isn't on so much either. For now.There are lots of permutations about this, the most obvious being that the president no longer wants her to succeed him. It was, anyway, always going to be only half a deal. She could get the country.He would remain as president of the ANC, which controls the government. The Guptas were on side.story_article_right2But if Zuma was once keen, what could have changed his mind? Part of the answer may be the recent literary stirrings of former president Thabo Mbeki.Under the guise of setting the record straight, Mbeki is writing a number of essays challenging the narratives established about him since he left power.While the party feigns indifference, it is, in fact, forensically interested. And the fact is, Nkosazana is much more a creation of Mbeki than she is of Zuma. Mbeki made her foreign minster, in his mind the best job in the government.And if the Mbeki letters were to be seen to be part of an intrigue to establish him or people close to him as credible voices ahead of the ANC elective conference in 2017, other plotters in the ANC's internal theatre will have to ask: is Nkosazana Thabo's secret candidate?The mere possibility would unnerve Zuma. One of his wives is already banished from Nkandla for, allegedly, trying to poison him.Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa is no favourite of Zuma's. And Mbeki despises him more. It's mutual.He should be out of the running already, but the more fractious the internal fights around Zuma become, the Gupta issue included, the more support falls into Cyril's lap, the tradition, anyway, being that the deputy takes over.story_article_left3But it must not be forgotten that the Guptas came to South Africa under Mbeki's wing, not Zuma's. They wouldn't fear a run by Nkosazana, but their hearts would be with the "premier league", the provincial barons who need to replace Zuma as head of state, at least, with someone equally pliable or bendy.Does any of this explain a pause in Nkosazana's medium-term personal planning? Nkosazana is not very bendy, I fear. She might keep Jacob out of jail, but his debts are bigger than that by now.And she would not settle for half a job, for window-dressing. She certainly wouldn't entertain instructions from a mere premier like Ace Magashule.Has the premier league perhaps found a reliably bendy candidate in her place? Has Jacob Zuma? For the moment, yes, they may have. It would be Baleka Mbete, ANC chairwoman and speaker of the National Assembly. She's very bendy, as the entire nation now knows. Anything to please JZ.Mbete is open about her ambitions, which first came to the fore when she sulked in public after Kgalema Motlanthe got the interim job as president between Mbeki and Zuma, and not her.Could she be president of South Africa in name only, while Jacob Zuma and the premier league run the show and the party?You bet. It would be a disaster, but at least we'd go down to the amusing spectacle of Julius Malema taunting her to the end...