The military is the elephant in the room in South Africa's present political equation. Yet it remains ignored and silent in the debate over the now almost inevitable succession to President Jacob Zuma despite the fact that he is its commander-in-chief. In this role Zuma has the power to deploy the armed forces to uphold security, subject to the scrutiny of what appears to be an increasingly dysfunctional parliament.The South African National Defence Force is obliged to act when the constitution is violated.Scenario planning in the higher reaches of the defence force also includes such eventualities as civilian leadership failure and "threats" to the constitution.story_article_left1What would be the response of the armed forces were Zuma to invite them into the political arena in a last-gasp attempt at political survival?Over the past 25 years South Africa has civilianised its armed forces. This means, at least in theory, that the military is now accountable to parliament through the minister of defence and a defence secretariat. In principle, the chief of the defence force, now General Solly Shoke, and his immediate staff can do nothing, including procure weapons, without public consent.As all South Africans know in the wake of the arms scandal, this is legalistic nonsense.The neat theories of civilianisation also presume a law-abiding and scrupulously democratic president and almost totally ignore the consequences of a corrupt and rapacious executive branch of government. Defence matters now frequently circumvent parliamentary oversight.Whether the proverbial "men on horseback" act to "save" society through a coup also depends on inclinations among the soldiers, especially their senior leaders.In our defence force this means officers of the rank of colonel or brigadier-general and up. Far too many of these pace-setters for military actions are political appointees or the products of nepotism arising from the ANC's re-engineering of the armed forces.One consequence is a huge, bloated institution with poor internal management systems.The military is able to manipulate norms governing public accountability under the catch-all umbrella of "protecting national security".What we do know is that Shoke, Minister of Defence Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula and a number of other generals are largely compliant members of Zuma's inner circle, on its margins, or otherwise dependent for their careers on presidential patronage.Everyone in the armed forces also knows that not being ANC-aligned is the kiss of death for promotion. Some of our best generals are either promoted sideways into, for example, the military ombud (the military version of the public protector), or "exiled" into peacekeeping forces.story_article_right2When Zuma goes, Shoke and many other senior officers who have benefited during the Zuma years will follow.The former chief of the defence force, General Siphiwe Nyanda, has called for the resignation of Zuma, as has the South African National Defence Union, one of two military unions, which called on soldiers to participate in peaceful protest actions in accordance with their rights as citizens.But this does not represent the view of top leadership, including the minister of defence, who has lamely but tellingly accused the union of "coup-mongering".A coup, a coup attempt or even inklings of a coup would be disastrous. Anything vaguely akin to military interference in civil society would effectively reverse 1994 by enhancing the role of "hard" men, some of whom have demonstrably intolerant views of the rule of law and democratic principles.There is also massive demoralisation and vocational frustration in the ranks of the defence force right down the chain of command. Fissures over everything from African peacekeeping to discipline in a human rights environment could conceivably become fractures, should disparate elements begin aligning with different political winds gusting from civil society. This will almost invariably destroy the military along with our precious constitution. If for no other reason, this, one hopes, will keep the armed forces where they belong: in the barracks.Frankel is a former head of the department of political studies at the University of the Witwatersrand. His latest book on the military, "Defending Democracy: The South African Armed Forces in a Transforming South Africa 1994-2016", will be available in international edition later this year...