Parties work on combination they hope will floor the ANC

21 May 2017 - 02:00 By Jan-Jan Joubert
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Opposition party leaders, from left, UDM chief whip Nqabayomzi Kwankwa, EFF leader Julius Malema and DA leader Mmusi Maimane have confounded the sceptics by forging amicable bonds and working well together.
Opposition party leaders, from left, UDM chief whip Nqabayomzi Kwankwa, EFF leader Julius Malema and DA leader Mmusi Maimane have confounded the sceptics by forging amicable bonds and working well together.
Image: SIMPHIWE NKWALI

Opposition co-operation against the ANC requires nimble footwork as the 2019 general election draws nearer, writes Jan-Jan Joubert

Last year's local government elections unseated the ANC in more than 30 municipalities, including the metros of Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay.

The party was replaced in government by coalitions of divergent opposition parties, and by minority governments that were given majorities over the ANC through opposition co-operation agreements.

The difference between the two is that a coalition involves political parties working together to form a majority and end up being represented in government, like the DA, the United Democratic Movement, the African Christian Democratic Party and COPE are in Nelson Mandela Bay. Under a co-operative agreement, a party lends its vote to the rest of the opposition but is not itself in government, as the EFF is in Johannesburg, Tshwane and elsewhere.

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With the exception of Laingsburg, Nelson Mandela Bay and Metsimaholo (Sasolburg), these coalitions and co-operative agreements seem to be functioning remarkably well, with the centre seemingly holding nine months after the elections. To many South Africans, this would have been unthinkable a year ago.

And with ANC support falling from 62% to 53% between the 2014 and 2016 elections, the writing could be on the wall for it in 2019 if current trends continue, even allowing for the fact that opposition voters are more likely than ANC voters to vote in local government elections.

The opposition party with the most to gain if coalition co-operation works out, and the most to lose if it does not, is the DA.

No wonder, then, that DA leader Mmusi Maimane has been rolling out the rhetoric about how an opposition coalition can unseat the ANC in the 2019 general elections. If that happens, he is likely to become president of South Africa.

The DA has a lot going for it. Compared to other South African political parties, it has a well-oiled and well-financed machine of professional staff, which includes polling, fundraising, research, administrative and media-messaging professionals.

It has a loyal support base among minority voters and grows its black support in every election.

That said, it faces many challenges, mainly with regard to policy, capacity, internal rivalry and pushback against coalitions.

Regarding policy, it has embarked upon a process of being ready come 2019. Hard-working MP David Maynier heads a process of adapting policies so that they can be implemented practically should the ANC be unseated.

The process should be completed by July, when discussions with possible coalition partners on thorny policy issues can begin - the moment the opposition tyre hits the tar pre-2019.

The process is informed by the practical experience the DA is gaining in the Western Cape provincial government and municipalities across the country - particularly lessons learnt in taking over from underperforming ANC administrations.

block_quotes_start The EFF has core supporters who do not want to vote with the DA, and some of its leadership figures would love a reverse takeover of the ANC block_quotes_end

In developing policies, the DA is hamstrung by the fact that it won far more municipalities than it expected last year, and had to second many of its professional staff to those towns, especially to target alleged policy-implementation sabotage by municipal officials loyal to the ANC, beneficiaries of ANC cadre deployment.

In response, the DA is training a swathe of professionals to be ready to govern according to DA principles and policies by 2019.

There is much understanding in the DA leadership core that its new policies cannot be too neoliberal. They must be pro-poor and even redistributive because most of the DA's potential coalition or co-operation partners are to its left.

The most important among these is the EFF, with which huge differences exist on matters of nonracialism, expropriation without compensation and nationalisation, to name a few.

Internal rivalry is becoming more commonplace in the DA as leaders try to position themselves for positions of power. This jockeying (DA federal executive chairman James Selfe refers to it as an illness named electionitis) diverts energy from the fight against the ANC.

Key to this weakness is the DA believing its own misleading propaganda that it won three metros in addition to Cape Town. It did not. Its governing in Tshwane, Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay is dependent on other parties for that very reason.

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There are also internal DA divisions, among which that between supporters and opponents of Western Cape premier Helen Zille's tweets on colonialism is currently the most acute.

There is also a mainly Western Cape-based outspoken neoliberal core that opposes working with the EFF, a party largely unknown in Western Cape local politics.

Zille, ever aware of a potential personal constituency, has warned that not too much yellow (ANC) or red (EFF) should be added to the DA blue. Compromise with the aim of not driving the EFF into the waiting arms of the ANC remains a DA imperative, however.

The key DA people to watch in negotiations with potential opposition partners are Maimane and Selfe.

As for the EFF, its opportunities, challenges and culture could not be further from the DA's. Its policies are firmly in place, although it has shown itself to be pragmatic and open both to negotiation and surprise solutions when push comes to shove.

EFF sources say the party is unlikely to commit itself quite as fully to a 2019 coalition project as Maimane has. Waiting until after the election to seek co-operative partners served the party well during and after the 2016 local government elections.

Not committing to the opposition openly would give the EFF - which will probably be a junior partner to either the ANC or DA should the ANC dip below 50% - more negotiating room and would divert ANC propaganda that a vote for the EFF is actually a vote for the DA.

The EFF has core supporters who do not want to vote with the DA, and some of its leadership figures would love a reverse takeover of the ANC.

But mostly the EFF leadership realises that co-operation with the ANC would leave it gobbled up and sidelined in due course.

Johannesburg and Tshwane's DA mayors have been fulsome in their praise for the inputs the EFF has made to ensure EFF voters are well served by the budget, and the EFF has proved a reliable co-operative partner to the DA - its word has been its bond.

That said, EFF insiders have expressed irritation at the DA's tendency to want to always be in charge, to speak before consulting, and to always believe its way is best - which EFF leaders term arrogance.

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The EFF's tendency to fluctuate in negotiations because it uses so many negotiators, in turn, irritates other opposition parties.

Key players in EFF negotiations are Julius Malema, Floyd Shivambu, Godrich Gardee, Hlengiwe Hlophe, Dali Mpofu and, in due course, probably Leigh Mathys and Mbuyiseni Ndlozi.

The IFP is absolutely on board the opposition project, as are smaller opposition groupings, which will probably also start making policy contributions soon.

The X factor no one could have foreseen was the ease with which the leaders of the DA, EFF, IFP, ACDP, COPE and UDM have formed amicable personal bonds.

If current trends continue and a close 2019 election result begins to look ever more likely, they would be well advised to tie up as many loose ends as possible before the end of this year.

The conclusion of its elective conference in December will allow the ANC to shift its focus from internal rivalry to fighting the opposition.

Indeed, an ANC threatened at the ballot box could make for a politically very nasty 2019, and those opposed to it may find they need to have each other's backs as never before.

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