Sunday Assessment: ANC fire power falls flat in Nquthu as IFP enjoys revival

It was akin to bringing machine guns to a stick fight, and still losing. Maybe the outcome should have been expected.

This is, after all, Nquthu: a Zululand town not far from Isandlwana, where 138 years ago well-armed British troops suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Zulu warriors armed only with spears and knobkerries.

This is not to suggest the ANC constituted a group of "invaders" in this instance, but the governing party brought superior arsenal to a rural by-election, whose results would have far-reaching consequences on the electoral landscape.

ANC insiders put its budget for the by-election at R3.5-million, while the IFP spent R200,000.

The result?

The IFP won 14 of the 17 wards in the municipality and the ANC three.

The IFP has 19 of the council's 33 seats, putting it in control of the municipality and the greater Umzinyathi district municipality.

The resounding victory is an amazing revival story for a party that was considered to be on its deathbed five years ago.

Much of its recovery can be attributed to the collapse of the National Freedom Party, an offshoot of the IFP which came about as a result of factional infighting.

The IFP's campaign strategy in the build-up to the by-election and last year's local government elections should not be overlooked.

Having suffered major losses to the NFP and the ANC in the 2014 general elections, the IFP started consolidating its strongholds in rural KwaZulu-Natal.

It sought to remind these constituencies of its time in government before and after 1994. It capitalised on the fact that, in the eyes of these voters, its leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, and other senior IFP officials were never embroiled in any corruption scandals.

It then came up with a simple yet effective slogan: "Sethembe - Trust Us".

After the election results came out, IFP chairman Blessed Gwala said: "This electoral victory is a clear indication that the IFP brand is one that is trusted by the citizens of KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa. This victory sends a clear message for the general elections in 2019."

IFP provincial secretary Velenkosini Hlabisa went as far as to claim that the Nquthu victory meant the IFP would regain control of KwaZulu-Natal in 2019 - a tall order considering that the ANC remains strong in the province's urban areas.

For the ANC, the poll outcome in Nquthu was disastrous.

The party had thrown all it had into the campaign, sending its top six officials - bar deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte, presumably because she doesn't speak Zulu - to campaign.

Although deeply divided over who should succeed President Jacob Zuma between Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the party closed ranks over Nquthu and presented a united front.

Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma supporters campaigned side by side for an ANC victory.

For the ANC leadership in KwaZulu-Natal, winning Nquthu would have meant gaining control of the greater Umzinyathi district. This, in turn, would have meant overseeing the potentially lucrative, fast-growing tourism industry in the area.

The defeat is a blow for KwaZulu-Natal ANC chairman Sihle Zikalala and his provincial executive committee. They came to power at a conference whose legitimacy was questioned by a section of the party's membership.

Their failure to continue growing the ANC in former IFP strongholds - something that happened during every election under predecessors Senzo Mchunu, Zweli Mkhize and S'bu Ndebele - will likely fuel calls for change.