Analysis: No cake for party poopers as Zuma revels with new friends

As Water and Sanitation Minister Nomvula Mokonyane read out the attendance register, President Jacob Zuma shielded his eyes with his hand and squinted into the crowd to check who had come to celebrate his birthday.

They stood up one by one and waved at the cheering crowd as Mokonyane called their names.

Zuma smiled, giggled and nodded each time he discovered that another of his staunch backers had made it to his 75th.

There were no surprises on the list.

The usual suspects were all there — Social Development Minister Bathabile Dlamini, ANC deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte, Umkhonto weSizwe Military Veterans Association chairman Kebby Maphatsoe, Cosatu president S’dumo Dlamini, Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Des van Rooyen and North West premier Supra Mahumapelo.

Zuma needed the turnout to reassure him that, despite thousands of opposition supporters marching to the Union Buildings demanding his removal that morning, he was still in charge.

It was important for Zuma to know who still regarded his birthday as a significant date on the calendar because the growing rebellion against his leadership has cost him several friends.

Those who did not show up to the party on Wednesday included Deputy President  Cyril Ramaphosa, ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize and secretary-general Gwede Mantashe — who had all  publicly questioned his decision to reshuffle his cabinet.

Leaders of the ANC in Gauteng did not pitch up either, despite being invited in writing by Duarte.

Those who flanked Zuma during the laughter and merriment at Walter Sisulu Square in Kliptown, Soweto, this week are seen as the new kingmakers in ANC politics.

They have a mutually beneficial relationship with Zuma: they need him in order to hang on to their positions, and Zuma needs them to ensure he remains in office.

A mere five years ago, they played no significant role.

Back then, the power dealers who stood next to Zuma and held his hand as he cut his birthday cake at a party at the International Convention Centre in Durban were former Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi and SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande. 

Two political clashes later and the men who flanked Zuma at his 70th birthday party are now at the forefront of the call for him to step down.

In an address to the hundreds of supporters gathered on Wednesday, Zuma was flippant about the opposition.

He told them that earlier in the day he had driven past the crowd gathered outside his office, the Union Buildings, demanding that he step down.

He dismissed the protest, saying the opposition parties were “opposing because they are the opposition”.

Zuma used his address to attempt to disarm his detractors in the ANC and the alliance — a feat he achieved, even if only momentarily.

“I have seen people come and go. I have seen heroes come and go.  I have also seen heroes become cowards. I have seen people who said they would die for the nation changing. I have seen people who were taught politics fade into obscurity,” he said.

After his address, it seemed Zuma’s supporters were emboldened in their determination to defend him.

It has been a tough few weeks in the ANC amid deepening divisions over whether Zuma needs to go or stay.

For those on the stage and in the front row in Soweto, Zuma’s masterly deflection on Wednesday made their task easier.

It helped Bathabile Dlamini and the rest of the supporters of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to push her campaign to become president of the party into fifth gear.

It also allowed S’dumo Dlamini to show his support for Zuma at a time when his own Cosatu central executive committee has called on the president to resign from high office.

Those who were marked absent from the celebrations without any satisfactory explanation may not survive Zuma’s wrath the next time he acts against his detractors.